Top of the Props: Konsa to Profit from Gunners Defensive Chaos, Sepp’s Shooting Spree and My Savona

Ezri Konsa 1+ shot for Aston Villa vs Arsenal – 7/2 – Ladbrokes

After Cristhian Mosquera was taken off injured in midweek, Arsenal have something of an injury crisis at centre back with the Spaniard joining Gabriel and William Saliba on the sidelines. 

Regular right back Jurrien Timber was forced to play a central role for the league leaders against Brentford and if he does so again, they’ll have a distinct lack of height at the back. 

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In their two games without their first-choice defensive pairing, Arsenal have conceded a goal from a corner from Trevoh Chalobah and another shot from Sepp van den Berg and so it makes sense to target them from set pieces. 

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If Aston Villa are to capitalise on Arsenal’s defensive issues, Ezri Konsa looks the most likely candidate to profit. 

The England international has only taken 0.24 shots per 90 this season but after two efforts against Brighton on Wednesday evening, he seems to be the main threat from dead ball situations once more. 

At such a big price, I can’t ignore a centre back who is aerially dominant against a side missing their best defenders in the air to take a single shot. 

Sepp van den Berg 1+ shot for Brentford vs Tottenham – 29/20 – Ladbrokes

Having mentioned Sepp van den Berg’s shot against Arsenal last time out, the Brentford defender has now managed five shots in his last four starts and has landed this bet in all of those games. 

That spell includes efforts at goal against Newcastle and Brighton as well as the league leaders and so having averaged 0.71 shots per 90 this season, the Dutchman should travel to Spurs full of confidence, in search of his first Bees goal. 

A game that features in our 5/1 Weekly Acca this weekend, Tottenham are giving up 3.79 shots from set pieces per game this season and after conceding goals to two opposition centre backs in their last five games, Brentford will be targeting this fragility. 

Van den Berg had a shot in the last meeting between these two sides and with him venturing forward for every long throw, corner and wide free kick, he’ll have plenty of chances to get on the end of at least one. 

Nicolo Savona to be carded for Nottingham Forest vs Everton – 5/1 – Ladbrokes

A regular approach in this column is to target Jack Grealish’s opposing full back for fouls and with the winger brought down 3.32 times per 90 this season, it’s easy to see why. 

However, whilst targeting fouls has proved profitable, it also makes sense to get behind his opponents to be carded too given that five right backs to face him this season have made their way into the referee’s notebook.

READ: Premier League tips and predictions powered by statz.ai 

Nicolo Savona is likely to start up against Grealish and whilst he’s only been carded once since his arrival in England, five bookings in 28 games for Juventus last season proves that he’s more than capable of attracting the attention of the officials. 

The Italian has committed five fouls across his last two games and so is due a card and up against Grealish, this looks the perfect time to back him for one at an incredibly generous price. 

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Odds correct at the time of writing.

Previous selections

27/11/2025

Joshua King 2+ shots for Fulham vs Tottenham – 5/6 – Ladbrokes

Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ offside for Crystal Palace vs Manchester United – 11/10 – Ladbrokes

Marc Cucurella 2+ fouls for Chelsea vs Arsenal – 5/2 – Ladbrokes

21/11/2025

Jan Paul van Hecke 2+ tackles for Brighton vs Brentford – 23/20 – Ladbrokes

Dan Ndoye 2+ tackles for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool – 19/20 – Ladbrokes

Declan Rice 2+ tackles for Arsenal vs Tottenham – 19/20 – Ladbrokes

14/11/2025

Andrej Kramaric 2+ shots on target for Croatia vs Faroe Islands – 19/20 – Ladbrokes

Joshua Kimmich 1+ shots on target for Germany vs Luxembourg – 11/10 – Ladbrokes

Scott McTominay 2+ total shots for Scotland vs Greece – 10/11 – Ladbrokes

07/11/2025

Reinildo and Bukayo Saka 1+ foul each in Sunderland vs Arsenal – 135/100 – Ladbrokes

Yankuba Minteh 2+ tackles for Brighton vs Crystal Palace – 13/10 – Ladbrokes

Nico O’Reilly 2+ tackles for Manchester City vs Liverpool – 10/11 – Ladbrokes

30/10/2025 - winner

Chris Richards 2+ tackles for Crystal Palace v Brentford – 21/20 – Ladbrokes

Marshall Munetsi 2+ tackles for Wolves v Fulham – 8/11 – Ladbrokes

Dominik Szoboszlai 2+ tackles for Liverpool v Aston Villa – 21/20 – Ladbrokes

23/10/2025

Tyrick Mitchell 2+ tackles for Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 4/5 @ Ladbrokes
Timothy Castagne 2+ tackles for Fulham v Newcastle @ 7/10 – Ladbrokes
Dan Ballard 1+ shot for Sunderland vs Chelsea – Evens @ Ladbrokes

17/10/25

Morgan Gibbs-White 2+ shots for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea @ 5/6 – Ladbrokes

Carlos Baleba 2+ fouls committed for Brighton vs Newcastle @ 10/11 – Ladbrokes

Beto 1+ offside for Everton vs Man City @ 11/10 – Ladbrokes 

09/10/2025

Isaac Price 2+ shots and 1+ shots on target for Northern Ireland v Slovakia – 4/5 – Ladbrokes

Evan Ferguson 2+ shots for Ireland v Portugal – 2/1 – Ladbrokes

Nathan Collins 1+ shot for Ireland v Portugal – 13/5 – Ladbrokes

04/10/2025

Dan Ballard 1+ shot for Sunderland vs Manchester Utd – Evens – Ladbrokes

El-Hadji Malick Diouf 2+ fouls committed for West Ham vs Arsenal – 13/5 – Ladbrokes

Daniel Munoz 2+ fouls committed for Crystal Palace vs Everton – 19/10 – Ladbrokes 

26/09/2025

Kyle Walker 1+ fouls committed for Burnley vs Man City – 5/6 – Ladbrokes

Emmanuel Agbadou 2+ tackles for Wolves vs Tottenham – 7/5 – Ladbrokes

Joachim Andersen 1+ shots for Fulham vs Aston Villa – 8/5 – Ladbrokes

19/09/2025

Beto 1+ offside for Everton vs Liverpool – 10/11 – Ladbrokes

Dango Ouattara 1+ offside for Brentford vs Fulham – 23/10 - Ladbrokes

Phil Foden 2+ shots for Manchester City vs Arsenal – 13/10 – Ladbrokes 

12/09/2025

Viktor Gyokeres 1+ offside for Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest – 6/4 – Ladbrokes

Nick Woltemade 2+ fouls committed for Newcastle v Wolves – Evens – Ladbrokes

Timothy Castagne 2+ shots for Fulham vs Leeds – 21/10 – Ladbrokes

04/09/2025

Anthony Ralston 2+ fouls committed for Scotland vs Denmark – 9/4 – Ladbrokes

Mattias Kait 1+ shots for Estonia vs Italy – 10/11 – Ladbrokes

Joao Neves 1+ shots on target for Portugal vs Armenia – 9/5 – Ladbrokes

21/08/2025

Dan Ballard over 0.5 shots for Sunderland vs Burnley - 5/6 Coral
Nathan Collins over 0.5 shots for Brentford vs Aston Villa - 29/20 Coral
Murillo over 0.5 shots for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace - 11/10 Coral

14/08/2025

Anthony Gordon 1+ offside for Newcastle vs Aston Villa  - 7/4 (Coral)
Cristian Romero 2+ shots for Tottenham vs Burnley - 16/5 (Coral)

Sepp van den Berg 1+ shot for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest - 7/4 (Coral)

07/08/2025

George Hirst 3+ shots for Ipswich vs Birmingham – 6/4 – Betway

Ismaila Sarr over 0.5 shots on target for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – 5/4 – Betway

Over 2.5 offsides for Hull vs Coventry – 10/11 – BetMGM

11/07/2025

Over 4.5 total offsides in PSG vs Chelsea – 5/6 – BetMGM

Fabian Ruiz over 1.5 tackles for PSG vs Chelsea – 9/10 – BetMGM

Joao Pedro over 1.5 shots for Chelsea vs PSG – 3/4 - BetMGM

27/06/2025

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic