Top of the Props: Dan’s the man for Black Cats, Andrews angling for set pieces and is this the way to goal Murillo?

Dan Ballard over 0.5 shots for Sunderland vs Burnley 

5/6 – Coral

Having scored from one of his four efforts at goal in Sunderland’s 3-0 victory over West Ham on opening day, centre back Dan Ballard should be raring to go again on Saturday. 

Every set piece was aimed at his head with the Black Cats executing well drilled routines in order to get him free as their biggest aerial threat. 

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Ballard is no stranger to being the focal point for set plays as his average of 1.12 shots per 90 last season shows and Regis Le Bris is clearly making good use of him again. 

Burnley showed that they’re not as defensively solid as last season by shipping three goals at Spurs last weekend and in that defeat, they allowed the Europa League champions to create 0.67 expected goals from restarts. 

Micky van de Ven was the beneficiary for Tottenham, being allowed two headers from inside the six-yard box and given that Ballard is much more imposing in the air, the odds here for him to get a single shot feel generous.  

Nathan Collins over 0.5 shots for Brentford vs Aston Villa

29/20 – Coral

Having mentioned how we could expect Brentford to prioritise dead ball situations in this column last weekend thanks to Keith Andrews’ expertise in this area, they duly had four efforts from set plays, two of which came form Sepp van den Berg to give us a lovely winner. 

The Dutchman’s price has been snipped this week but his centre back partner Nathan Collins is more than backable, especially as he managed a shot of his own last weekend. 

The Ireland international averaged 0.45 shots per 90 last season and during pre-season managed shots against QPR and Borussia Monchengladbach, scoring against the R’s to boot. 

Aston Villa will be significantly weakened when defending the situations that Brentford love most as Ezri Konsa’s opening day dismissal will mean that the Villans are without a recognised centre back to partner Tyrone Mings. 

With Brentford flooding the box at every opportunity and the threat of Michael Kayode’s long throws, Collins can take advantage. 

Murillo over 0.5 shots for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace  

11/10 Coral

The final player on our tour of Premier League centre backs is Nottingham Forest’s Murillo who averaged 0.71 shots per 90 last season which included 12 efforts from outside the box to go along with the traditional set piece threat. 

The Brazilian is happy to pull the trigger from anywhere and is often given free kicks in shooting positions too. He’ll also have fond memories of playing against Palace having netted the equaliser against them back in May. 

The Eagles gave up 0.6 expected goals from set plays against Chelsea last weekend with both Blues centre backs afforded shots from corners. 

They conceded ten goals from dead ball situations last season and with fatigue at play given their Conference League qualifier on Thursday evening. Their backline may switch off, allowing Murillo to capitalise as he did in both meetings last season. 

READ MORE PREMIER LEAGUE: All 10 Premier League matches predicted and with best bets ahead of the new season

One of the key takeaways from Thomas Frank’s first game in charge at Spurs was that they look incredibly dangerous from set pieces. 

They created chances at will against PSG with seven shots from set plays of which captain Cristian Romero had two and scoring twice from such situations will have done little to deter their new boss from this approach. 

Brentford scored the fifth most set pieces in the Premier League last season under Frank and with Romero the target for first contact from every corner, wide free-kick and Danso long throw, he looks set for a season with plenty of shots. 

Burnley arrive in the Premier League with the best defensive record in Championship history and so will look to replicate this set-up and frustrate a Spurs side who will be physically and emotionally fatigued by their midweek exploits. 

That could make set pieces even more crucial and when you consider that 38% of the goals the Clarets conceded last season came from restarts, it makes sense for this to be an area that Tottenham target again. 

Want some more betting tips? Check out our Weekly Acca, featuring some huge games from the PL gameweek 1 and a couple of EFL picks too.

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Odds correct at time of writing.

Previous selections

14/08/2025

Anthony Gordon 1+ offside for Newcastle vs Aston Villa  - 7/4 (Coral)
Cristian Romero 2+ shots for Tottenham vs Burnley - 16/5 (Coral)

Sepp van den Berg 1+ shot for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest - 7/4 (Coral)

07/08/2025

George Hirst 3+ shots for Ipswich vs Birmingham – 6/4 – Betway

Ismaila Sarr over 0.5 shots on target for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – 5/4 – Betway

Over 2.5 offsides for Hull vs Coventry – 10/11 – BetMGM

11/07/2025

Over 4.5 total offsides in PSG vs Chelsea – 5/6 – BetMGM

Fabian Ruiz over 1.5 tackles for PSG vs Chelsea – 9/10 – BetMGM

Joao Pedro over 1.5 shots for Chelsea vs PSG – 3/4 - BetMGM

27/06/2025

Eric Martel over 1.5 fouls committed for Germany U21’s vs England U21’s – 11/10 – BetMGM

The old enemy meet again on Saturday evening as Germany take on England in the U21’s Euro 2025 Final in a repeat of their group stage meeting. 

That game saw the Germans make 15 fouls and so it makes sense to side with one of their players for more infringements given what’s at stake. 

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If it’s fouls we’re after, Eric Martel is our man with the defensive midfielder committing a massive 15 across just four starts in the competition so far with at least three in each of those. 

This is a significant uptick on his club data where he’s averaged 1.18 per 90 this season but clearly something about representing his nation has Martel fired up.

In the middle of the park, the Koln man will likely be up against England duo Alex Scott and Elliot Anderson who have drawn 5.2 fouls per 90 between them in the competition so far. 

With Martel’s data and two opponents who regularly get kicked, this price looks like a fantastic opportunity. 

Liam Delap over 1.5 fouls committed for Chelsea vs Benfica – 9/10 – BetMGM

One of the more intriguing last-16 battles sees Chelsea and Benfica meet on Saturday evening and with the Portuguese side having seen off Bayern Munich last time out to top Group C, the Blues will be wary of the threat they pose.

Nicolas Jackson’s brainless red card against Flamengo coupled with Liam Delap scoring his first Chelsea goal last time out should mean that the new signing gets a third consecutive start. 

With plenty to prove after his big move, Delap will be throwing his weight around in trademark fashion, something Premier League fans have become accustomed to with his average of 2.48 fouls per game for Ipswich. 

He’s already averaging 1.81 per 90 for his new club and so looks to have started where he left off domestically.

A key battle in deciding the outcome of this match will be Delap’s tussle with veteran centre back Nicolas Otamendi. 

The Argentine is no stranger to a physical contest and so far in this competition has drawn six fouls across his three starts. 

With both players looking to impose themselves early, there should be plenty of aerial duels and with Delap’s record, he’ll no doubt go in late at least a couple of times. 

Inter Miami over 1.5 offsides vs PSG – 8/11 – BetMGM

An old favourite of this column, we’ve got another backable price in the offside market in PSG’s last 16 Club World Cup tie with Inter Miami. 

The odds are a tad shorter than we would normally take, however, given the data at hand it still looks to hold plenty of value.

In the competition so far, Inter Miami have been caught offside six times in three group games and so their average is bang on the two per game needed to land this bet. 

Read: Who will reach the Club World Cup quarter finals? 

Given their age, forwards Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi lack the pace to trouble defences in behind. 

Therefore are often forced to go early in a bid to create chances and against a strong PSG backline, this will be no different. 

European champions PSG draw an average of 2.11 offsides per game across all competitions this season and have consistently done so in the Club World Cup where they caught each of their three opponents in the group stage offside twice. 

This bet would have landed in each of their last five games and given Inter Miami’s numbers, it looks likely to do so again.

You might also fancy checking out more from the Club World Cup and the rest of South American football in our CONMEBOL weekend acca - including Palmeiras vs Botafogo! 

20/06/2025

Samuel Dahl to assist for Benfica vs Auckland City – 6/4 - BetMGM

An angle that won nicely for us last week, it would be rude not to go in again on player assists against Auckland City after they shipped 10 goals in their opening game against Bayern Munich. 

The amateur side are well out of their depth in this competition and whilst Benfica aren’t as big a giant as the German champions, they should be able to rack up a handsome scoreline against a side ranked as low as National League North sides in Opta’s rankings. 

If Benfica are to win well, being able to get 6/4 about a player in Samuel Dahl who has more assists per 90 this season than any other player in their squad feels like a sensible play. 

The left back didn’t start their first group game but replaced Alvaro Carreras at half-time who was also booked and so we can expect him to get the nod for this one. 

In domestic action, Dahl made four assists in just six league starts this season and with him given freedom to get forward at will, he’ll have plenty of chances to swing crosses in. 

Bayern Munich’s full backs created three chances and had one assist between them last weekend and Dahl has the quality to do similar. 

Nicolas Otamendi over 0.5 shots on target for Benfica vs Auckland City – 6/5 - BetMGM

Another Benfica player who can fill his boots against such weak opposition is veteran centre back Nicolas Otamendi who is enjoying the best goalscoring season of his career with eight goals. 

Three of those goals have come within his last six starts, including having netted against Boca Juniors in their first group game and so he should be full of confidence. 

The Argentine averages a healthy 0.34 shots on target per 90 across all competitions this season and has landed this bet in four of his last six starts.

Auckland City’s deficiencies at this level are well documented and in particular, they are weak defending set pieces as demonstrated when they allowed Kingsley Coman to head in from a corner against Bayern Munich. 

Centre back Josip Stanisic was afforded two efforts at goal in that game and with Otamendi’s aerial ability, he’ll likely make the Kiwi side pay if given similar opportunities. 

Both teams to score – No in Flamengo vs Chelsea – 19/20 - BetMGM

So far in the Club World Cup, both teams have scored in just six of the opening 14 matches and so the general trend has been a lack of goals. 

The scorching temperatures have no doubt played a part in a general lack of intensity so far, as has many games being contested between sides with a huge gap in quality. 

This match between Flamengo and Chelsea should be one of the more competitive games in the tournament so far, however, the data from both teams suggests we could be in for a low scoring affair. 

Chelsea have seen this bet land in five of their last six matches in all competitions, including their opener against LAFC and for Flamengo, both teams have failed to score in seven of their last eight. 

The Brazilians gave up just 0.24 expected goals against Esperance whilst the Blues also allowed their opponents just 0.85. 

Chelsea should edge a close encounter and comfortably hold Flamengo at arm’s length and with both sides in comfortable positions in the group, there’ll be no urgency to get forward which should also lend itself to this bet. 

13/06/2025

Michael Olise to assist for Bayern Munich vs Auckland City – 5/4 – BetMGM

As the only amateur club to qualify for the Club World Cup, Auckland City have a huge uphill battle on their hands in a group containing Benfica, Boca Juniors and Bayern Munich, all of whom have histories that dwarf that of the Kiwi club. 

Their last Club World Cup campaign saw them beaten 6-2 by Al Ain and so this opener against the German champions really could be any scoreline.

Bookies have Bayern in for a shedload of goals and if they’re to do so, Michael Olise is likely to be heavily involved. 

The Frenchman has contributed nearly double Bayern’s next player in terms of assists with 15 in the Bundesliga and would have landed this bet in each of his last five games for Vincent Kompany’s men. 

With his credentials and the lack in quality of the opposition, to be getting above even money for Olise to manage a single assist feels like a gift too good to pass up.  

Achraf Hakimi to have over 0.5 shots on target for PSG vs Atletico Madrid – 59/50 - BetMGM

Fresh off scoring the opener in PSG’s Champions League final triumph, Achraf Hakimi will arrive in California full of confidence, it's something we've discussed in our full breakdown of PSG vs Atletico Madrid and the permutations of the match. 

The Moroccan has long been regarded as one of the best attacking full backs in the world. His record of 0.73 shots on target per 90 for his club demonstrates his consistent threat in the final third. 

This bet would have landed in seven of his last 11 starts and in the Champions League he’s scored in three of his last four so a game against Atletico should hold no fear. 

Speaking of continental competitions, Atletico Madrid conceded an average of 4.7 efforts at goal per game against Europe’s elite this season. 

One of those games came against PSG where they gave up seven shots on target. Two of which came via Hakimi and so he has previous in this fixture and therefore looks a nice price to continue his shooting streak. 

Rodrigo De Paul over 1.5 tackles for Atletico Madrid vs PSG – Evens – BetMGM

If Atletico are to get off to a winning start against the newly crowned European champions, their defence are likely to do most of the heavy lifting. 

The Parisians drew 22.29 tackles per game in Europe this season and with the Spanish side averaging 19.6 per game themselves, it makes sense to side with one of their players for tackles. 

In the aforementioned previous meeting, Diego Simeone’s side made a massive 32 tackles and so we can expect them to be busy defensively again. 

In that previous head-to-head, Argentine midfielder Rodrigo De Paul made two tackles in just 60 minutes of action. His Champions League average of 2.28 per 90 suggests that he’s capable of doing so again. 

Across PSG’s last seven matches in all competitions, opposition central midfielders have been forced into making 34 tackles with nine separate players making at least two and with De Paul’s combative style, he’s a solid bet to add his name to that list. 

Achraf Hakimi over 1.5 shots – 21/20

(BetMGM)

With a reputation as one of the best attacking full backs in world football, Achraf Hakimi has enjoyed his Champions League campaign this season averaging 2.11 shots per 90 minutes and scoring three times in the process.

The Moroccan has managed at least two efforts in five of PSG’s last six games in European action and is often the most advanced option going forward due to the attacking freedom he’s given by Luis Enrique.

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Inter are renowned for their stubbornness in defence but in Europe’s top competition this season they have given up 15.29 shots per game.

Many of those matches were against smaller sides in the group stages, however when facing Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the previous two rounds, they conceded at least 19 shots in each game suggesting that Hakimi and PSG will get plenty of opportunities to pull the trigger.

Ousmane Dembele to score or assist – 6/5

(BetMGM)

Ousmane Dembele has had a break-out season in the French capital, contributing 44 goal involvements in 48 matches in all competition to show that he is ready to take on the mantle of being the Parisian club’s talisman.

In the Champions League, his record reads eight goals and four assists in 14 matches and having landed this bet in each of his last five appearances in the competition, he’s proving to be a man for the big occasion. 

READ: The Weekly Acca: Champions League final features in our four-fold

Inter arrive in Munich as the underdogs and having conceded 10 goals in their last five Champions League matches, we can expect PSG to get on the scoresheet.

In the previous round against Barcelona, they struggled to contain the tournament’s top goalscorer Raphinha who was afforded a goal contribution in each leg of the semi-final and so despite Dembele’s reputation as PSG’s dangerman, the Italian club may still find it difficult to stop him.  

Hakan Calhanoglu over 1.5 shots – 19/10

(BetMGM)

As underdogs on the night, Inter Milan will need Hakan Calhanoglu to come to the fore if they’re to cause an upset on Saturday night.

The Turk is known for his long-range shooting and his average of 2.36 shots per 90 in Champions League emphasises how happy he is to pull the trigger from anywhere.

He’s had at least two shots in eight of his 10 starts in the competition and also takes free-kicks and penalties and so should get plenty of chances to shoot.

In each of the three previous rounds of the competition, PSG have given up at least 17 shots which suggests that Inter can get some joy going forward.

Across their last four matches in Champions League action they’ve allowed opposition central midfielders to have 10 shots between them and with Calhanoglu needing no invitation to shoot, he looks a fantastic price to try his luck a couple of times.

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic