Top of the Props: Saints’ set-piece struggles, Spurs caught wrong side and Soumare getting stuck in

Dan Burn to have over 0.5 shots for Newcastle vs Southampton – 21/20 – BetMGM

This weekend’s Premier League tips back Newcastle to get the victory, but where could the value lie outside of the result itself? 

Southampton are conceding 19.7 shots per game at St. Mary’s, so their opponents are always a good bet for shots on goal. 

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Dan Burn and a consistent threat in the air and this season has averaged 0.57 shots per 90. Making him a hot property in this market. 

He’s yet to score and having got on the scoresheet six times across the last two seasons for Newcastle, this match-up with Southampton looks a great opportunity to end his drought.

Southampton boss Ivan Juric has struggled to stem the flow of goals conceded by the Saints and they still have a glaring weakness in defending set pieces. 

The away side have 12 goals conceded from set plays is the second-worst record in the league and having allowed Nottingham Forest to rack up 0.98xg from set pieces last weekend, Newcastle will be targeting this area. 

In the reverse fixture, Eddie Howe’s men had Fabian Schar sent off after just 28 minutes but two of their three shots still came from set pieces, so hopefully Burn can get his six-foot-five frame on one this weekend. 

Over 1.5 Tottenham offsides vs Leicester – 10/11 – BetMGM

Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took over at Leicester, one of the key tactical changes has been a higher defensive line. Their last six games in all competitions have seen 14 opposition offsides at an average of 2.33 per game with five of those sides having at least two. 

That includes having played Manchester City who were flagged twice despite their season average being just 1.05 per game, the lowest in the Premier League. 

Tottenham are used to catching their opponents offside rather than being caught themselves, however, they have averaged 1.64 offsides per game this season. 

When facing the higher lines in the division, they’ve fallen into the trap plenty of times with totals of two against Brighton, three against Chelsea and City and four against Liverpool and so there’s evidence to suggest that they are capable of at least two in this tie. 

Boubakary Soumare to commit 2 or more fouls for Leicester vs Tottenham – 12/5 - BetMGM

Staying with the game at Tottenham, as the most fouled team in the league, they’re a team to target for opposition fouls. 

They’ve drawn 13.2 fouls per game with many of those taking place in the middle of the park where James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski have drawn 4.51 fouls per 90 between them. Across Tottenham’s last six games in all competitions, opposition central midfielders have committed 20 fouls between them.

Under Van Nistelrooy, Soumare has been Leicester’s midfield general committing 14 fouls in just nine Premier League games at an average of 1.75 per game. 

He’s been booked in five of those games and made at least two fouls in four of his last six and will be tasked with letting former Foxes man Maddison know he’s there early. 

Soumare’s had one start and three short sub appearances against Spurs in his career and has averaged 4.24 fouls per 90 in those minutes; more of the same on Sunday will do nicely at a lovely price of 12/5 with BetMGM. 

Odds correct at the time of writing.