Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Azerbaijan GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play

McLaren – 2025 constructors world champions. Well almost.

We’ve talked plenty of times about how they look favourite to win the title this year, about how dominant they  have been. Well, it looks likely that this weekend they will seal the deal. Much more on that to come but first let’s look back on events last time out in Italy.

Never write off Max Verstappen! That’s the lesson we all learnt in Monza. 

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Italy might have been a sea of red going into the race weekend, but Ferrari didn’t rise to the occasion, nor did the McLaren’s, and Verstappen pulled off an absolute masterclass of a weekend converting his fifth pole of the season into a win, only his third Grand Prix victory year.

Whilst Red Bull’s team principal Laurent Mekies celebrated his first win as the boss, it was McLaren who were left licking their wounds after a controversial decision to ask the drivers to swap places. 

A slow stop for Lando Norris saw him drop behind his teammate, Oscar Piastri, to be running third on track. The team took action to correct their mistake, but for many, it didn’t sit comfortably. 

Track records: Reading constructor standings for better bets

No-one could have written the script for the 2025 Italian Grand Prix, let’s see if we do a better job this weekend in Baku.

Piastri leads the driver's championship by 31 points from Norris, the gap closing by three-points after Italy. Is it too little, too late? It appeared Norris was faster than his teammate all weekend in Italy and will be hoping fate goes his way again here. 

Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds

Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions 

Baku, ‘The city of winds’, welcomes F1 this weekend. A technically challenging circuit that demands extreme precision from the drivers. 

The now infamous 'castle section,' sees drivers wind their way past the UNESCO World Heritage site that is the Walled City of Baku. 

The narrowest part measures just 7.6 metres. The lap then finishes with a 2km flat-out straight, the longest of the calendar. This variety has contributed to some very exciting and unpredictable races in recent years.

Pirelli delivers its softest trio of 2025 compounds to Baku, a step softer than last year, but it still looks likely to be a one stop race. Most starting on the medium tyre and seeing how the race unfolds.

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At just 89.5m, the run down from pole position to the first braking point is the shortest of the season. It doesn’t give much opportunity to make places up on the opening lap and often leads to contact in turns one and two.

Norris, looking to close the gap on teammate Piastri, hasn’t traditionally gone well in Baku. His highest qualifying was sixth in 2021, his highest grid slot is seventh and his best finish was fourth last year. He’ll be hoping for a better result this time out if he’s to continue to close the gap in the battle for the drivers’ championship.

Ironically, it was at Baku last year (Piastri won the race) where McLaren took the lead in the constructors’ championship. This year, they have dominated the title race and look likely to wrap up the 2025 constructors’ championship this weekend. 

They are a whopping 337 points ahead of Ferrari. If they outscore them by nine-points in Baku, they will be constructors champions for the second year in a row. 

It would be McLaren’s tenth time as constructors' champions, moving ahead of Williams on the list of most titles won. 

If they do take the title this weekend they would steal the record for the most number of races remaining in a season from Red Bull, proving this season’s supremacy. (Red Bull won the 2023 title with six races remaining). There will be seven rounds left after the Baku race.

FIRST’s top tip for Azerbaijan GP

Charles Leclerc has secured pole on F1’s last four visits to Azerbaijan. While Ferrari doesn't have the fastest car, there is just something about Leclerc in Baku. 

Pick: Charles Leclerc to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix - 7/1 (10bet)

Extra tips 

Back on the points for Bearman? Lando Norris, Franco Colapinto and Oliver Bearman are the only current drivers with 100% points finish rate at this track. Unlucky not to get a point scoring finish last time out, I’d back Bearman for points this weekend.

Pick: Ollie Bearman to score points - 4/1 (10bet) 

51 laps not out: Lewis Hamilton could continue his record of being the only driver to complete every lap to date in Azerbaijan.

Safety car incoming: The only race in Baku to not feature a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car was the first race in 2016 (which was an extremely boring GP). 

Since then, the racing has been ‘on fire’ and there has always been at least one SC/VSC in every race, including three in 2017 and 2021 and two in 2018, 2022 and 2023. 

Pick: Safety car - Yes - 1/3 (10bet)

McLaren on top? If McLaren lock out the front row for the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, it would be the team’s 70th front row lock-out. 

Pick: Both cars podium finish: McLaren - 2/5 (10bet) and 4/9 (Betway)

Extra pick: Norris and Piastri to finish in the top two + Over 17.5 classified cars + Over 2.5 race leaders - 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Extra pick: Tricast - 1st Norris, 2nd Piastri and 3rd Verstappen (was 6/1) NOW 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Pole doesn’t always win prizes: Baku has only seen the polesitter win the race twice. (Rosberg in 2016, Bottas in 2019). 

Whoever takes pole position, I don’t envy them, keeping it all race long is rare. With a 2.2 km start/finish straight creating a good tow for drivers behind, it makes the leader vulnerable into turn one. 

The odds share this view with Piastri at a fairly long 7/2 with 10bet to win qualifying and win the race. 

Marginal: The average pole margin is just 0.295 and that’s slightly skewed by Rosberg’s domination in 2016 (0.757s) so backing a tighter qualifying margin would be good.

No retirements - no chance: There has never been an F1 race in Baku that has seen everyone cross the line. There have always been at least two cars not seeing the chequered flag. 

Pick: Number of classified drivers - Under 17.5 - 4/6 (10bet)

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

FIRST’s recommended Formula 1 Azerbaijan GP betting sites 

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best Formula 1 bookmakers to make their move on the Azerbaijan Grand Prix this weekend.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.