Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Italian GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play 

Was the Dutch Grand Prix the moment Lando Norris lost the 2025 World Championship? It might well have been, as his engine went pop and he saw the gap between him and his teammate and championship rival, Oscar Piastri, increase from nine to 34 points. 

What could have been? If Norris had won the race he could have closed the gap to just two points. It’s a massive swing for something that the Brit had no control over.

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It's the largest gap between the top two in the championship this year. It’s not insurmountable, but with the consistency of Piastri’s results, it seems like a tall order for Norris to get back on top.

From lows, come the highs and a huge congratulations to Isack Hadjar who got his first ever F1 podium after just 15 races. 

An impressive weekend for the Racing Bulls driver and one which could seal his fate going forward, as his strong form sees him once again linked to the Red Bull seat for next year. alongside Max Verstappen.

The reigning champion finished in second place last week and performed one of the most audacious moves this year, stealing second place from Norris on the opening lap.

It was also an excellent weekend for Haas and Aston Martin with both drivers scoring points for their teams, Bearman recovering from a pit lane start to finish in sixth place.

In another highs and lows moment in the sport. A double DNF for Ferrari and a five-place grid penalty for Lewis Hamilton at the team’s home race for failing to slow for waved double-yellow's before the race had even begun last week. 

Kimi Antonelli crashing into Charles Leclerc will leave him licking his wounds as the Mercedes man goes to his home race. He’ll be hoping for a better weekend this time out.

Monza Grand Prix odds (10bet)

Monza Grand Prix predictions 

Monza, the temple of speed, is located within the royal park and is the oldest purpose-built venue on the calendar. 

The 5.793 kilometre track (53 laps) has 11 corners and drivers spend 80% of the lap at full throttle, the cars running the lowest aero downforce level of the season.

Kimi Antonelli made his F1 weekend debut at the 2024 Italian Grand Prix, stepping into George Russell’s car for Free Practice 1. 

The Italian pushed a little too hard a little soon and crashed heavily at Parabolica. The Tifosi will expect more from him this time.

Track conditions can often be F1’s great equaliser  but the pole-sitter has failed to win the last five races at Monza. 

The last driver to convert pole to the win was Charles Leclerc in 2019. Historically, the pole to win conversion rate at Monza is under 40%. 

Like last year, the softer tyres will be provided: the C3, C4 and C5. I would expect most drivers to use the hard and medium tyres for the race. With one of the longest pit-lanes in F1 the time last in a pit-stop means teams are likely to opt for a one-stop strategy. 

READ: Formula 1 driving an increase in their betting markets

Last year tyre wear meant that the Italian Grand Prix became a two-stop race for most teams in 2024. Leclerc decided not to take a second stop and managed to hold on to take his second win on home soil. 

Lewis Hamilton, with five wins, shares the record for most Italian GP victories with Michael Schumacher.  

It will be his first time as a Ferrari driver racing in Monza, let’s see whether he can harness the power of the Tifosi as he has so many times at Silverstone, to perform a near miracle to add to his tally of wins.

Ferrari have won at the Italian GP 20 times, the most of any team, they have recorded 23 poles and 72 podiums. Leclerc has won twice at Monza – but those two victories are the team's only wins in 14 years (Alonso 2010).

FIRST’s top tip for Italian GP 

Not many people would have backed Charles Leclerc for the win last year. But he has great form at Monza and could be worth backing for a podium finish again this year. 

Ferrari always turn up the wick at their home race, so don’t discount them at your peril.

Pick: Charles Leclerc to win the Italian GP - 12/1 (10bet)

Extra tips

Freedom: Arguably, Norris losing so many points last weekend might just free him up to race without the pressure a tight title fight brings. I’d expect a stellar performance at Monza. Maybe even the win that eluded him last year.

Pick: Lando Norris to win the Italian GP - 7/4 (10bet) 

Williams: They go well at this race which needs less downforce than other tracks and favours the team. I’d look for points scoring results for both Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon.

Pick: Both cars to score points - Williams - 2/1 (10bet) 

Safety car: It could be another busy race for the safety car. It’s made an appearance 17 times since 2000 and has featured on lap 1, on six occasions. 

Pick: Safety car - Yes - 4/5 (10bet)

Tipped for a full-time seat: Alex Dunne is a name you should know, if you don’t already. 

An Irish sensation, the 19-year-old is a McLaren young driver and competes in F2 this year. He’s been tipped for a seat in F1 in the future. He takes part in FP1 this weekend.

Alex Dunne 🤝 FP1 in Monza

Looking forward to seeing you take to the wheel of the MCL39 again! 🤩#McLaren pic.twitter.com/F81DnZQUWs

— McLaren (@McLarenF1) September 2, 2025

One to watch… 

Hamiton special: With his five-place grid penalty it will be extremely tough for Hamilton to win Ferrari’s home race. 

Overtaking is a challenge at Monza because DRS has a reduced impact due to the skinny rear wings used there. However, Hamiton is the king of fightbacks and I’m predicting he can make up more than five places in the race.

Pick: Lewis Hamilton top six finish - Evens (Ladbrokes)

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructor standings

FIRST’s recommended Formula 1 Italian GP betting sites 

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best Formula 1 bookmakers to make their move on the Italian Grand Prix this weekend.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.