DP World Tour Championship tips: McIlroy leads three-horse race for the Race to Dubai title

DP World Tour Championship: Things to consider 

The top 50 in the Race to Dubai move onto the season ending DP World Tour Championship from the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Tommy Fleetwood (6/1 Betfred) played bridesmaid once again as Aaron Rai beat him in a playoff in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Rai hadn’t teed it up since finishing t3 in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

Love golf? Find the best golf betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

Rory McIlroy made significant strides in his bid for his seventh Race to Dubai title and Harry Vardon trophy as he hit a final round of 10-under par to propel himself into tied third place in the first leg of the Playoffs. 

Marco Penge (20/1 Coral) did his best to hang onto McIlroy’s coattails, firing a round of 9-under par himself. It means Penge is nearly 800 points behind the Irishman in what looks like a two-horse race, albeit Tyrrell Hatton can still win the Race to Dubai if a miracle happens! 

Penge would need to win the DP World Tour Championship and hope Rory finishes third or worse. Or Penge could finish second if McIlroy fails to make the top five.

DP World Tour Championship: Top of the market 

Rory McIlroy is the short price market leader (4/1 Ladbrokes), followed by Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton (14/1 Spreadex) who still have an outside chance to catch him in terms of the Race to Dubai title. 

But Hatton will have to win the DP World Championship and hope McIlroy finishes outside the top 10.

Aaron Rai (18/1 Betway) pushed himself into the top 10 in the rankings with his HSBC Champions win, having been outside the top 50. Robert MacIntyre (12/1 William Hill) and Ludvig Aberg (14/1 Spreadex) round up the top five in the betting.

Tee to green reigns supreme on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates where generous landing areas leave long iron shots into undulating greens with run offs into large marble bunkering. 

The lengthy par 72 track plays around 7,700 yards and winds through desert terrain. Par five performance will be key, and we are looking for big hitters that excel with their irons and scoring on the long holes. 

Conditions are set to be fast and firm this week and rough is denser than in recent renewals placing emphasis on keeping the ball on the short stuff.

Nicolai Hojgaard has a great record in this part of the world, and he won the DP World Tour Championship on the Earth course two years ago, carding a final round of 8-under par. On his only other appearance here he finished fourth. 

Here’s more: The six key strategies to nailing your golf betting picks

He also won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship down the road. The twin is hitting form at the right time finishing alongside McIlroy in third place at the Abu Dhabi Championship. 

Nicolai was another big mover, jumping 19 spots to 21st in the rankings despite predominantly playing stateside in 2025. 

The Dane tops the ‘driving distance’ stats in 2025 on the DP World Tour and ranks 10th in ‘strokes gained off the tee’. He’s also 19th in the ‘strokes gained approach’ stats and 14th in ‘par five scoring’.

Nicolai’s twin brother Rasmus Hojgaard is also high up on my radar here. He was second in 2024 on the Earth course at the DP World Tour Championship and ranks sixth in ‘driving distance’. fifth in ‘strokes gained off the tee’, 34th in ‘strokes gained approach’ and fourth in ‘par five scoring’ in 2025. 

Rasmus Hojgaard is a five-time DP World Tour winner. He’s 7-11-2 in his last three appearances at the DP World Tour Championship.

Young Spanish sensation Angel Ayora ranks 10th in ‘driving distance’ and fourth in’ strokes gained off the tee’ in his first full season on the DP World Tour. 

The Spaniard sits seventh in ‘par five scoring’ and has all the attributes needed to tackle the Earth Course. He carded a round of 9-under par to finish tied for ninth place in Abu Dhabi.

FIRST.com’s top tip - DP World Tour Championship 

Nicolai Hojgaard is the standout in the first tier of the market. The Dane is rounding into form and has previous finishes of fourth and first here. 

Back him to win the tournament at 16/1 (five places) each way with William Hill.

Extra tips

Nicolai’s brother Rasmus Hojgaard also stands out in terms of course fit for the Earth Course. Back him at 20/1 (five places) with Spreadex.

Angel Ayora is another player who presses all the course fit buttons. Back the Spaniard for the DP World Tour Championship at 40/1 (five places) with Coral.

DP World Tour Championship: Value bets

Brandon Robinson Thompson is the official bubble boy but makes the field due to withdrawals. Matthew Jordan jumped up two spots after Abu Dhabi to take the last official place in the DP World Tour Championship field. Connor Syme also sneaks into the field.

It’s Keita Nakajima though who is hitting top form just now and he was seventh here last year at the DP World Tour Championship on debut. He ranked 10th for ‘driving distance’ that week. 

Nakajima was 12th in Abu Dhabi off the back of a runner up spot a few weeks back in India. He sits 14th in the Race to Dubai standings and looks to have one of 10 PGA Tour Cards sewn up.

The Japanese star was also 4th at the Betfred British Masters. He’s 22nd in ‘strokes gained off the tee’ this year and has a scoring average of 4.62 on the par 5s – good enough to rank a 9 out of 10 in my course fit model.

READ: The five pillars of success and course layout factors

Richard Mansell moves up seven spots into the top 30 after Abu Dhabi, and he looks in great form. The Englishman could have one eye on the 10 PGA tour cards up for grabs. The big hitter carded a final bogey free round of 9-under par to finish tied fifth in Abu Dhabi on 22-under par.

Mansell is top 30 in ‘driving distance’ and ‘strokes gained off the tee’ and he was in the top 10 for the ‘driving distance’ stat in both 2021 and 2022. 

Mansell won earlier in the season at the Porsche Singapore Classic and is just hitting top gear again.  It’s just one appearance at Jumeirah for Mansell where he finished in a credible 28th spot.

Laurie Canter is another Englishman with a good record on the Earth Course. He ranks 20th for ‘greens in regulation’, 11th in ‘strokes gained off the tee’, and 33rd in ‘strokes gained tee to green’. 

He is also 36th in ‘par 5 scoring’. In three outings at the Earth Course, Canter owns a top five along with 27th and 14th place finishes. 

Current form wise, Canter was second at the Genesis and picked up a top 25 finish in Abu Dhabi.

FIRST.com’s top value tips - DP World Tour Championship 

Keita Nakajima has form at the course and good progressive current form. Back the Japanese star at 55/1 (five places) with Spreadex.

Laurie Canter likes the Earth course and is excelling from tee to green this year. Back Canter to win the tournament at 6/1 (five places) each way with Betfred.

Richard Mansell is trending hard and looks set to win again soon. Back Mansell this week at 140/1 (five places) each way with Spreadex.

Responsible gambling with FIRST.com 

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.