Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship tips: Who can thwart McIlroy from a seventh Race to Dubai title?

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Things to consider

The DP World Tour playoffs tee off this week from Yas Links GC in Abu Dhabi. The top 70 available players in the Race to Dubai rankings along with some special exemptions will tee it up at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship looking to book a spot at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. 

The top 50 will advance to Dubai where they will also contest a $6m (£4.57m) bonus pool. Both DP World Tour playoff events are non-cut tournaments. There will also be 10 PGA Tour cards awarded to the top ranked players after proceedings in Dubai.

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Some big names who would have qualified for the DP World Tour playoffs are missing. Jon Rahm has chosen to end his season and take an extended break, while Victor Hovland and Justin Rose won’t feature at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Sepp Straka will also sit this one out due to personal reasons.  

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Top of the market

The scoring system for the playoff events is volatile with significant points hauls available for the winner in both Abu Dhabi and in Dubai. 

This means that although market leader Rory McIlroy 11/2 (Betfred) has built a lead of over 400 points on second-placed Marco Penge, the Irishman is far from guaranteed his seventh Harry Vardon trophy.

There are maybe 10 players who could still win the Race to Dubai if they put two great golf tournaments together, beginning at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. The purse this week is $9m (£6.85m) with 9,000 Race to Dubai points in total in the kitty.

The winner will get 1,500 points and the runner up gets 1,000 points meaning it’s possible for Penge to leapfrog to the top of the rankings with a solo second place as long as McIlroy finishes behind him. Tommy Fleetwood (13/2 with Betfred) vies for favouritism with McIlroy.

Marco Penge has won three times on the DP World Tour this year and has risen to 29th in the overall golf world rankings. He is currently first in line to pick up a PGA Tour card. 

Shorter-priced players in the market include Shane Lowry (22/1 with Betway) and Ludvig Aberg (10/1 with Ladbrokes) who qualify via their Ryder Cup appearances. At 80th and 112th respectively in the rankings both have a lot to do to make the final 50.

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Tyrrell Hatton (9/1 with Spreadex) and Robert MacIntyre (14/1 with Betfred) are also 2025 Ryder Cup winners that will tee it up at Yas Links. Hatton owns form of 6-7-2 on the course and he won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in 2021 at Abu Dhabi Golf Club.

Alex Noren must also be respected this week. Noren has recently become the most successful Swede in DP World Tour history, taking down both the British Masters and the BMW PGA Championship. 

He was fifth here two years ago in his only appearance at Yas Links. Noren ranks first in ‘stroke average’ and second in ‘greens in regulation’ on the DP World Tour in 2025.

Tom McKibbin is a player that stands out to me in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship market. Following a top 15 finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship McKibbin finished t4 at the Open de Espana. 

He went on to blitz the Hong Kong Open field on the Asian Tour last week. McKibbin likes the course having finished top 10 at Yas Links last year. The Irishman ranked seventh in ‘driving distance’ and seventh in ‘greens in regulation’ on the LIV Tour in 2025.

FIRST.com’s top tip - Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship 

Tom McKibbin is the man with the course and current form concoction. Back the McKibbin at 22/1 (seven places) each way with Ladbrokes.

Pick: Tom McKibbin to win the tournament (seven places) e/w - 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

Extra tips

I am impressed with the form of Alex Noren, Patrick Reed and Marco Penge ahead of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship if we’re looking for some value towards the top of the market.

Back Noren to win the tournament each way at 22/1 (five places) with Betway.

Back Penge to win the tournament and take over at the top of the Race to Dubai rankings. The Englishman is 22/1 (six places) each way with Spreadex.

Patrick Reed has been showing his top form lately too and looks a tasty price. Back Reed to win the tournament at 35/1 (six places) each way with Spreadex.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Value bets 

Yas Links is a links style resort type course on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. It’s an undulating par 72 “desert links” track playing almost 7,500 yards and equipped with strategically placed pot bunkers, lurking water hazards and elevation changes. 

The course layout and configuration, lends itself to powerful hitting from the tees and low scoring, so long as the wind isn’t too strong. Irons into segmented greens will be key.

For this reason, I’m going to chance some big odds outsiders in the each way market and they might be worth looking at in the first-round leader market too.

Laurie Canter’s price stands out but Haotong Li looks even a little more overpriced for me at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Li has progressive 40-t21 finishes coming into an event on a track that should really fit the Chinese star and potential to nail your weekend’s golf bets.

Li has enjoyed somewhat of a comeback year with a win close by in Qatar and another highlight being where he showed his links pedigree finishing t4 at the Open Championship.

Alejandro Del Rey blitzed the field in this part of the world at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship earlier in the season and the Spaniard has a good record in the UAE and Middle East.  

Del Rey currently sits 57th in the Race to Dubai rankings and is simmering form wise, averaging around 40th spot in his last three events. Del Rey was also top 40 here last year and could go well again in a low scoring event.

Ugo Coussaud was sixth here at Yas Links GC on debut last year with a four round scoring average of 67 and he is one of the bigger hitters on the DP World Tour. He ranks 10/10 in my course fit model for driving distance across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. 

Coussaud was recently fifth in the Spanish Open and has the added incentive of trying to push his way into the top 50, currently lying in 64th spot in the rankings.

FIRST.com’s top value tips - Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship 

Haotong Li and Alejandro Del Rey have already won in this part of the world on the DP World Tour in 2025 and both look a little overpriced in my opinion.

Back Li to win the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship each way (seven places) at 75/1 with Coral.

While Del Rey to win the tournament is chalked up at 200/1 (six places) each way with William Hill.

Ugo Coussaud could be the surprise package this week and has portrayed a liking for the course already. You can get the Frenchman at odds of 100/1 (six places) each way with Spreadex.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.