Golf betting tips: Hojgaards and rising stars set for Kenya Open and Mexico Open

Ludvig Aberg was the picked winner in last week's Genesis Open betting tips. However, with several of the stars of the sport sitting out this week, we could be fooled into thinking there's a bit of a lull on both sides of the golfing pond.

But fear not, we have a full-field DP World Tour event, and a PGA Tour event south of the border to get stuck into.

It is a chance for some lesser-known names to do some damage!

Kenya Open: Feast on Nacho Elvira’s appealing price 

The Kenya Open is the first of three golf tournaments in Africa that will complete the International Swing which is the first of five global swings on the Race to Dubai calendar. 

The Kenya Open will once again be played at Muthaiga GC in Nairobi which is a tight, tree-lined parklands style track featuring water hazards aplenty and small greens. The track plays to a par 71 at just 7,200 yards. 

Englishmen Tyrell Hatton and Laurie Canter lead the ‘Race to Dubai’ rankings but those two along with plenty of other big names have chosen to sit this one out. This means that there is plenty of opportunity for lesser lights and rising stars to get a taste of contention come Sunday.

£1.98m is in the Kenya Open kitty and 3,500 ‘Race to Dubai’ points are on offer. The ‘international swing’ winner will qualify for every event of the DP World Tour’s ‘back nine’ phase along with receiving a bonus of £160,000.

Where does the value lie?

There are no standout favourites in the Kenya Open betting with 13 guys ranging in odds from around 22/1 to 40/1 at the front of the betting. The first-round leader betting will also be one to track on Thursday.

Two of those in the top tier of the market look good value against the Kenya Open field. Haotong Li at 25/1 with Mr.Play is fresh off a victory in Qatar, rebounding from a monumental loss of form which saw the Chinese player in the golfing doldrums for a couple of years. 

Angel Ayora at 30/1 with Spreadex is a youngster worth watching as is 22-year-old Frenchman Martin Couvra at some lengthier odds of 50/1 with BetMGM. South African star Jayden Schaper is also one to watch at 33/1 with Mr.Play.

Of shorter-priced players, Seb Soderberg is the man who stands out for me. The Swede has had three DP World Tour starts this season with an average finishing position of 20th place, with his best finish being a tied fifth at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. 

Soderberg has already won on tour at the Omega European Masters where he was victorious in a five-man playoff that included Rory McIlroy. Coincidentally, the course this week is similar to Cran-Sur-Sierre. Soderberg was third in ‘strokes gained approach’ in 2024 and I like that metric for Muthaiga GC.

Andrea Pavan looks a nice price this week after a return to form. He’s had back-to-back top 20s in Bahrain and Qatar, and he has propelled himself up to 11th in ‘strokes gained approach’ this season.

Pavan isn’t the only one who has been playing a little better than the stats suggest in recent weeks. Nacho Elvira recorded a top 25 in Qatar and has been playing better than his results have been portraying of late. Nacho has been on the end of some difficult draws. 

The Spaniard has some serious results on his resume including two DP World Tour wins. Nacho was also runner-up to Darius van Driel at Muthaiga in the 2024 Kenya Open.

FIRST’s top tips for the Kenya Open 

Seb Soderberg has form in Kenya. He won the Barclay’s Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour in 2016. He likes this part of the world and is 20/1 (seven places) each way with Betway.

Andrea Pavan and Nacho Elvira have both been playing better than their results have shown lately and you can get them onside each way six places at 50/1 at BetMGM and 80/1 with Spreadex respectively.

Mexico Open: Bookies having a Knapp with Jake’s price 

The PGA Tour heads down south this week to VidantaWorld in Vallarta, Mexico. There’s 500 FedEx Cup points going to the winner and a total purse of £5.56m. 

This will be the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, a golf course playing nearly 7,500 yards to a par of 71. Looking at the leaderboards and the winners of the three previous editions of the Mexico Open here, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out the profile to back this week.

Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Jake Knapp – three of the game’s longest hitters - have been victorious south of the border and previous leaderboards are full of powerful drivers. 

It’s a low-scoring resort-type set-up with generous fairways and large pristine putting surfaces. The course was designed by Greg Norman and the winning total should be around 20-under par.

Jake Knapp gave a tee-to-green masterclass last year en route to a convincing victory and he demonstrated just how much of an advantage his power off the tee and solid iron shots gave him over several players in the field. 

The bookies have gone asleep on Knapp’s price given he opened at the same number in 2024. Knapp has been in fine form of late, featuring in each of his last four events without quite contending over the weekends. 

The big-hitting American’s last outing was a T17 at the Genesis. He opened with a 65 at Pebble Beach in the previous Signature Event. 

Patrick Rodgers at 22/1 with Mr.Play featured here last year and was a big part of last week’s story at the Genesis. That took a lot out of the nearly-man though. 

The same could be said of Dane Rasmus Hojgaard at 18/1 also with Mr.Play but for different reasons. 

He finished dead last having been cut adrift at the bottom of the board at Torrey Pines and questions could be asked as to why he is second favourite behind Akshay Bhatia (14/1 Mr.Play) in the Mexico Open betting.  

Kurt Kitayama at 20/1 with Betway and Stephan Jaeger (25/1 Spreadex) must be respected.

A pair of Hojgaards and more

Nicolai Hojgaard eats resort-type layouts like this one for breakfast and it’s not as if he is coming here out of form. Arguably he should be swapping odds with his brother Rasmus ahead of the Mexico Open. 

Of course, it was Nicolai who edged out his brother in the race for a Ryder Cup spot in 2023. 

Hojgaard is simmering right now and has demonstrated his liking for bomber’s tracks with victories at both the Earth Course in Dubai and when blitzing the field at the 2022 Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He also has an Italian Open tucked under his belt. 

The 23-year-old twin was 30th in approach shots and 26th in ‘driving distance’  last season which is a strong concoction for success at Vidanta.

Back to the theme of some lesser-known names having a chance to make history this week and who better than Aldrich Potgieter for the specific test in question? 

The South African has a very high course fit rating at VidantaWorld. Aldrich ranks first in ‘driving distance’ and club head speed this year, second in ‘strokes gained: off the tee’, and at just 20 years of age. 

Potgieter won in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and was tied for second at the Nedbank Challenge. Recently he was 15th in the Farmers Insurance Open where he was in contention after 54 holes.

With bombers in mind, I must give an honourable mention to Chris Gotterup who got his maiden win last year at the Myrtle Beach Classic and ranked fifth in driving distance for last season. He was recently 25th at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. 

Will Gordon rates a 10 out of 10 for driving distance in my course fit model and is ranked 27th in ‘total driving’ in 2025. The American sits second in club head speed and 18th in approaches from the 175–200-yard range. 

Gordon has had a mini resurgence in form with his standout recent finish being a T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

FIRST’s top tips for the Mexico Open

Interestingly, Jake Knapp ranks first in longest drives and seventh in approaches from 175-200 yards this season. Back the big-hitter at 35/1 (six places) with BetMGM.

Nicolai Hojgaard and Aldrich Potgieter are two powerful youngsters who could take this track apart at 40/1 with Betway and 70/1 with BetMGM each way respectively.

The same can be said of Chris Gotterup and Will Gordon who are regulars up there in the driving distance stats. Back Gotterup at 75/1 (six places) with Spreadex and Gordon each way at 100/1.

Odds correct at the time of writing.