Top three value picks for the PGA Championship

The second major of the 2025 golf season is nearly upon us. On Thursday, the best in the business will head to Quail Hollow Golf & Country Club, where the PGA Championship takes place. 

Can the in-form Rory McIlroy build on his recent masters success and land a second major of the season? Is this the Northern Irishman’s best chance of more major glory in 2025? 

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Ahead of the action at Quail Hollow, we try to snuff out some value in the betting, so let’s tee off and see if we can find some winners.  

Justin Thomas (each way) @ 16/1 

Coral, 10 places

Looking at those towards the head of the market, Justin Thomas is not a player to ignore, and for my money, he could easily be a little shorter than the 16/1 that’s currently available. 

‘JT’ came out on top when the PGA Championship was hosted at Quail Hollow back in 2017, while he’ll return to the venue off the back of showing some hot form last week, finishing second in Philadelphia. 

Read: The six key strategies to nailing your golf betting picks

What’s more, of those to have played multiple Quail Hollow events previously, JT has the fourth lowest average score in the field, while only Scottie Scheffler has won more ‘bermuda grass’ events than Thomas since 2008. That’s not to be ignored. 

The world number five has his game in tip-top shape right now, winning or finishing second in three of his last four events. Pair this with his previous course form and I can’t leave him alone in the betting. 

Patrick Reed (each way) @ 55/1 

Coral, 10 places

At much bigger odds, get on board with Patrick Reed this week. This big hitter is definitely suited to the fact that Quail Hollow is a course for strong drivers, as he’s shown in the past, finishing second behind Thomas in 2017, and placed eighth and sixth at the North Carolina venue since then. 

What I also like about Reed is that he’s absolutely a man for the big occasion, placing third at The Masters in April 2025, and in the top ten at several other majors in recent seasons. 

Bolstering Reed’s claims further is the fact that only McIlroy ranks better in terms of strokes gained: total at Quail Hollow since 2016. That statistic makes odds of 55/1 look far too chunky. 

Max Homa (each way) @ 150/1 

BetMGM, seven places

Lastly, I cannot help but siding with Max Homa if 150/1 is on offer. I’m taking just seven places, but given the price on offer, that’s fine by me. After all, Homa has won not once but twice at Quail Hollow since 2019, posting two other top 10 finishes in the last five years. 

The Californian gets on well with this North Carolina track, ranking sixth in the field for strokes gained: total at Quail Hollow since 2016. 

Sure, he hasn’t necessarily been firing on all cylinders on a regular basis this season, but he did raise his game at Augusta recently, finishing t12, while he was steady in Philadelphia last week. 

Now returning to a course that clearly suits his game, I think Homa could lay down a bigger challenge than the early odds suggest. He’s definitely my idea of a value pick. 

Is the PGA McIlroy’s best chance of winning a second major in 2025? 

At Augusta, it seemed like most people wanted McIlroy to get over the line, but ahead of the action at Quail Hollow, people seemingly expect the Northern Irishman to thrive. 

Why is this the case? Well, not only is McIlroy currently ranked as the world number two and not only is he playing some of the best golf of his career, but the five-time major winner has a superb record at Quail Hollow. Which means that fans don’t just want McIlroy to deliver another major in 2025, they expect him to. 

It will be interesting to see how McIlroy shoulders these extra expectations, and let’s be honest, given that he’s previously won four times at Quail Hollow, this is likely his biggest chance of securing a second major of the campaign. 

One of the biggest reasons for McIlroy’s previous success at Quail Hollow is his prowess off the tee with the driver. 

The North Carolina venue is known as a course that suits strong drivers, and the 36-year-old, who comes into the tournament after a momentum-building seventh last week, is certainly that.

At odds across the board of just 5/1, McIlroy isn’t my idea of a value bet this week, and it’s worth mentioning that he hasn’t always been all smiles at this venue, failing to get seriously involved when the PGA Championship was last hosted at Quail Hollow back in 2017.

Odds correct at the time of writing.