PGA Championship betting tips: Can Spieth emulate McIlroy and win golf’s grand slam?

PGA Championship: Things to consider  

It seems like only yesterday that Rory McIlroy donned the ‘green jacket’, but we are already gearing up for major number two of the year as the PGA Championship hits Quail Hollow, ironically the course McIlroy has had the most success on.

A lot has happened since then, most notably world number one Scottie Scheffler grabbing his first win of the season in style as he blitzed the Byron Nelson tournament field by eight strokes in front of his home fans. 

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Bryson DeChambeau (12/1 Matchbook) has since won on the LIV Tour and winners last week included Sepp Straka (66/1 BetMGM), who we tipped up for the win in the Truist Championship. 

This week at the PGA Championship the players are playing for the Wanamaker Trophy, 750 FedEx Cup points and a share of a purse worth around $20m (£15m). Jordan Spieth (74/1 Matchbook) and Phil Mickelson are playing for something extra, both with the chance to emulate McIlroy and win the grand slam.

We’ve already run through a trio of PGA Championship value picks earlier in the week, ahead of Thursday’s tee off - but here’s our comprehensive breakdown of the key considerations when making your major bets. 

PGA Championship 2025 betting: Quail Hollow course fit and trends

We usually see lengthy parkland style tests like Valhalla, Congressional, Southern Hills. Medinah and TPC Harding Park host PGA Championship golf. 

Scoring in the last handful of renewals had been higher than usual until Xander Schauffele (22/1 Spreadex) set last year’s major scoring record of 21-under par at Valhalla in easy conditions.

At a deeply treelined Quail Hollow the wiry Bermuda rough was grown up back in the PGA Championship of 2017 and Kevin Kisner used his fairway finder stock draw to hold the joint first round lead with Thorbjorn Olesen before eventually finishing tied for seventh. 

Kisner had led going into the third round with Hideki Matsuyama and held the lead after 54 holes too.

Scoring for the PGA Championship test was evidently a lot harder than at a run of the mill PGA Tour event at Quail Hollow. The track - after some tweaks by Tom Fazio - now lends itself to faders of the ball as well as drawers. 

Plenty of players pop up regularly in the course history statistics at Quail and it isn’t a coincidence. 

There will be a large premium on ‘total driving’ (with the rough up again and precipitation in the area) and high trajectory approach shots into large, elevated greens, like at Philly Golf club last week. 

‘Bogey avoidance’ and ‘par four performance’ will be key stats for the PGA Championship. ‘Par five performance’ will also be worth looking at.

PGA Championship 2025: Top of the market  

Scottie Scheffler is wrestling for PGA Championship tournament favouritism with McIlroy (both at 5/1 with BetMGM) after his success at TPC Craig Ranch despite never teeing it up at Quail Hollow in a PGA Tour event and only claiming half a point in the Presidents Cup there. 

McIlroy on the other hand is a four-time winner at Quail Hollow Club which includes a win at the signature event in 2024. With the grand slam pressure off McIlroy and a nice warm up behind him at the Truist Championship where he finished t7, I fully expect the Irishman to be the one to beat here. Will he prove there’s value in siding with the short-priced favourite?

With the premium on long and straight driving and towering approaches at Quail Hollow I expect the big Swede Ludvig Aberg to go well at a fair price of 25/1 with BetMGM. 

Xander Schauffele won two majors last year and this form was kick started at Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship where he was runner up to McIlroy, having led for much of the tournament. Schauffele was also runner up here at that event in 2023.

Justin Thomas looks really good right now with a t2 finish at the Truist Championship backing up his ‘signature event’ win at the RBC Heritage. 

He owns a scoring average of 70.27 in seven appearances at Quail Hollow with a course history line of: 7-missed-cut-1-21-26-14-21. Thomas ranks 14th in the ‘par five performance’ stats and fifth in ‘strokes gained approach’ on the PGA Tour.

Hideki Matsuyama is another man with a great Quail Hollow course fit and he has secured finishes of 20th, 11th and fifth in six appearances. Matsuyama looks like he is back to top form after shooting 63 on Saturday at the Truist Championship. He faded a bit on Sunday for a t17 finish to follow a t21 at the Masters. 

In the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Matsuyama was the joint leader with Kisner at the halfway stage. Matsuyama lies 26th in approach play and 12th in ‘proximity to the hole’.

Patrick Cantlay has been coming up on the rails in recent weeks and he played almost flawless golf on Sunday to make a late charge for the Truist Championship. 

Cantlay has a progressive form line of t36, t13, t4 and we wouldn’t have seen these prices on him last year. Cantlay has four appearances at Quail Hollow, three of them resulting in top 35 finishes. 

The unflappable 33-year-old ranks 10th in ‘strokes gained approach’ and 33rd in ‘total driving’.

FIRST’s top tip for the PGA Championship 

Justin Thomas gets the nod as top tip for FIRST. He looks to me to be the form player in the field and is available each way (10 places) at 16/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes.

Extra tips 

I’m also impressed by Matsuyama’s recent form, and he has a nice course fit for Quail Hollow. Back the Japanese star at 33/1 (eight places) each way with Betway.

A dangerous Patrick Cantlay is rounding into top form, and he looks overpriced this week. Back him to win the PGA Championship at 33/1 (seven places) each way with BetMGM.

PGA Championship 2025: Value bets  

Jason Day has a nice record around Quail Hollow and was in contention in the 2017 PGA Championship here. The former PGA Championship major winner is a previous winner of the Wells Fargo and has three other top 10s and six top 25s in all at Quail Hollow, with a scoring average of just over 70. 

His ‘bogey avoidance’ ranking amid a comeback year or so is 26th. Day placed t4 last year here in the Wells Fargo signature event. He pulled out of the Truist Championship with a minor neck injury but “beware of the injured golfer”! Day recorded top 10s in the Masters and at Bay Hill this year.

Sungjae Im is prominent on my radar for longshots at the 2025 PGA Championship. Im was the second highest points earner for the international side with 2.5 points at the Presidents Cup in 2022 at Quail Hollow. 

The South Korean had a t4 finish at last year's Wells Fargo ‘Signature event’ and was t5 at the Masters this year. 

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He backed that up with an 11th place at Harbour Town and was in contention through 54 holes of the Truist Championship last week. Im is second in the ‘par 5 performance’ stats and ranks 20th in ‘strokes gained off the tee’.

Taylor Pendrith is interesting for me this week as an outsider for the PGA Championship. I think he is a perfect course fit for Quail Hollow Club, and he finished top 10 in the ‘signature event’ last year here.

He also played at Quail hollow in the Presidents Cup. Pendrith sits third in ‘total driving’, sixth in ‘strokes gained off the tee’, third in ‘ball striking’, 11th in ‘greens in regulation’ and 11th in ‘par 5 performance’.

Lucas Glover is what we call a horse for a course at Quail Hollow with a win, a runner up and five top 10s (with three top fives) in all here for the former major winner. Glover showed he can still play with the big boys by winning back-to-back at the Wyndham Championship and St. Jude Championship in late 2023. 

The American finished in the top 20 at last year's ‘signature event’ at Quail Hollow and this year he has been third in both the Players Championship and at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ‘signature event’.

FIRST’s top value tips for the PGA Championship  

Jason Day has one of the lowest stroke averages at Quail Hollow. Get the Aussie onside at 55/1 each way (ten places) with Coral and Ladbrokes.

Sungjae Im is going to strike a big one soon and he is lying under the radar at 80/1 each way (seven places) with Spreadex.

Both Taylor Pendrith and Lucas Glover appear overpriced given their strong course fit for Quail Hollow. Back them each way respectively at 125/1 and 150/1 (ten places) with Ladbrokes or Coral.

There is also some each way value backing Day, Im, Pendrith and Glover respectively in the first-round leader market at 60/1, 66/1, 100/1 and 150/1 (five places) with Ladbrokes.

Odds correct at the time of writing.