Memorial betting tips: Scheffler defends but Cantlay to thrive at Jack's place

Memorial Tournament: Things to consider

The Memorial Tournament is the seventh of eight elevated ‘signature events’ on the PGA Tour this season. 

Jack Nicklaus hosts at his own place and Muirfield Village is one of three signature venues that will see a cut. The top 50 and ties and those within 10 strokes of the lead will advance to the weekend.

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The race for the FedEx Cup is really hotting up now and 700 FedEx Cup points will go to the winner of the Memorial. There is $20m (£14.75m) in the prize kitty with $4m (£2.95m) up top.

Scottie Scheffler defends one of seven events he won on the PGA Tour in 2024, while over in Belgium on the DP World Tour, Kristoffer Reitan came out of nowhere at Rinkven International GC to shoot a course record 9-under par and win in a three-way playoff at the Soudal Open.

Last week at Colonial Ben Griffin (66/1 Ladbrokes) got his maiden (solo) win on the PGA Tour and he leads the Aon Next 10 to secure qualification for the Memorial Tournament. The current Aon Swing five top earners also earn spots at Jack’s place. 

Memorial Tournament: Top of the market

Defending Memorial Tournament champ Scottie Scheffler is a short-priced (3/1 with BetMGM) market leader of the Memorial Tournament odds with Rory McIlroy sitting this one out over a disagreement about the compliance of his Driver.

Xander Schauffele (14/1 Spreadex) is still looking to find top form and he comes into the Memorial betting odds as second favourite. 

Justin Thomas is next up in the Memorial betting market at 16/1 with BetMGM after a surprisingly disappointing PGA Championship. He looks a little short for me this week.

Muirfield Village is a second shot course with a premium on approach shots into some elevated and sloping greens. 

It's more precision than power needed off the tee, however par five’s must be taken advantage of. “Jack’s place” is a par 72 measuring 7,569 yards. The players we are big on this week will be strong off the tee, bang in form and excellent iron players.

With this in mind, Collin Morikawa has a great record at the Memorial with a win and two runner-up finishes to his name. 

Morikawa has been one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour circuit this season with two second place finishes and a host of top 20s. 

Read: The six key strategies to nailing your golf betting picks 

Muirfield Village is known as a second shot track and Morikawa is seventh in ‘strokes gained approach’ and 10th in ‘proximity to the hole’. The American is also 22nd in ‘strokes gained off the tee’. 

Another former Memorial Tournament champ is Hideki Matsuyama, and similarly to Morikawa, the concoction for the Japanese star’s success here has been strong driving and flushing his irons. 

Matsuyama has three other top eight finishes to go with his Memorial Tournament win, and he comes here in decent form. 

A t36 finish at Colonial is masked by dropping five shots in a calamitous last four holes which only serves to inflate his price for us this week.

Patrick Cantlay is the man with the plan for Muirfield Village. Cantlay has been fully simmering this year, and he could boil over at any stage. 

Cantlay owns the lowest stroke average in the Memorial Tournament ‘signature event’ field at 70.50 from nine appearances. 

He has shaken the hand of Jack Nicklaus twice (2 wins) and owns a fourth place, a third place and a seventh place here on top of that. Cantlay was showing progressive 36-13-4 form before a missed cut at Quail Hollow but a week off will have done him good.

FIRST's top betting tip for the Memorial

Patrick Cantlay get FIRST’s top vote at the Memorial. He averages 1.5 strokes under par over 34 rounds at Muirfield Village. 

Pick: Cantlay to win the tournament (six places) each way at 18/1 with Betway.

Extra tips

Collin Morikawa is statistically one of the best, if not the best iron player in the game year on year. Back Morikawa to strike on a “second shot course” each way (six places) at 16/1 with Betway.

Hideki Matsuyama is another star with a strong course fit for Muirfield Village. Back Matsuyama to win at 28/1 each way (eight places) with Ladbrokes or Coral.

The Memorial Tournament value bets

Signature events with limited fields and a strong front of the market can play out a bit like majors where it’s hard to find good value further down the betting but I have three nice Memorial Tournament picks here. Hopefully they can follow our value bets from last week!

First up is Matt Fitzpatrick who seems to have been on holiday. Fitz has just started to turn up again over the last few weeks showing progressive form of t40-t38-t23-eight. 

His last outing was a top 10 finish at the PGA Championship and Fitzy has some good form behind him at the Memorial. He has finished third, ninth and fifth in his last handful of appearances here. A ranking of 11th in approaches from over 200 yards stands out for me with Fitzpatrick.

I’m going to give a nod to Russell Henley who is now up to seventh in the world golf rankings. He is another of the game’s finest iron players which he showed en route to winning one of this season’s previous ‘signature events’ at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Henley has two top seven finishes at Memorial and has been 16th and 27th the last two years at Muirfield Village. 

He was t8 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago. Henley ranks 28th in approach shots this season and he is fourth in ‘greens in regulation’ and third in ‘proximity to the hole’.

Muirfield Village is a course you need to manage your way around and Fitzpatrick is skilled in this area, but his compatriot Justin Rose knows how to tackle Jack’s place even more. 

Rose is a former winner here back in 2010 and he has also recorded two runner-up finishes at Memorial. 

He often shows up in the big events and most recently he lost out in a playoff at the Masters to McIlroy. He’s had a little bit of illness but should be over that now.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Memorial Tournament

Matt Fitzpatrick has been finding top form again in recent weeks and we want him onside here at 45/1 (six places) each way with BetMGM.

Russell Henley has all the stats to back up my course profiling for him at Muirfield Village and he can challenge for his second ‘signature event’ success of the season at 45/1 each way (six places) with Spreadex.

Another Englishman on the radar for the Memorial Tournament is big game hunter Rose who was recently runner-up at the Masters and could blossom here.

Back him at a hefty 100/1 (eight places) each way with Ladbrokes or Coral.

Odds correct at the time of writing.