Canadian Open betting tips: Former champ Nick Taylor in fine form in own back yard

RBC Canadian Open: Things to consider

There’s a new venue in town for the Canadian Open as TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North course takes centre stage. It’s just the eighth course to host the Canadian Open since 1977.

“This is a special and deserving moment for TPC Toronto in stepping onto the global golf stage in hosting the 114th playing of our national Open Championship” said Laurence Applebaum (Golf Canada CEO).

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500 FedEx Cup points are on the line for the winner and there’s a purse of $9.8m (£7.24m) to be shared among those who make the Canadian Open cut at the newly renovated North course at Osprey Valley, a place Taylor Pendrith calls home.

Last week at Memorial it was the Scottie Scheffler show once again as he stormed to victory by four shots at Jack’s place becoming just the second man, behind Tiger Woods, to win back-to-back at the Memorial Tournament. 

But we did catch a 45/1 each way (six places) winner, with Russell Henley placing t5 last week. Between the RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament, we certainly have a good primer for next week’s US Open.

Canadian Open Betting: Top of the market

Leading the Canadian Open market is a returning Rory McIlroy (9/2 Spreadex) who won in Canada three years ago and in the previous Canadian Open renewal in 2019. Home favourite Corey Conners plays bridesmaid in the Canadian Open betting market, opening at 16/1 with Betway.

Ludvig Aberg (12/1 Ladbrokes) will be trying to turn his poor run of form around before the season’s third major at Oakmont next week and maybe he can build on a closing 66 at Jack’s place. Shane Lowry continues to play well and enters the Canadian Open odds at 20/1 with Betway.

Robert MacIntyre (25/1 BetMGM) will defend the Canadian Open but one year previously, in 2023, Nick Taylor became the first home winner of this tournament in nearly 70 years. He holed out from miles away in a playoff to dampen Tommy Fleetwood’s dreams of his maiden PGA Tour victory.

The recently renovated North course plays to 7,445 yards in length and is just a par 70. There are several long par threes and par fours in play and the course is sandwiched by opening and closing par fives - a unique feature. 

The Doug Carrick design is a parkland track with heathland features, renowned for its dramatic green complexes and drop-offs. It hosted last year’s Fortinet Championship on the PGA America’s tour won by Will Cannon on a score of 5-under par.

Taylor Pendrith is another big name Canadian who will be looking to add his name to the Canadian Open title and MacKenzie Hughes’ chances also look good among the pack of home hopefuls. 

Hughes lost out to Ryan Fox (66/1 Spreadex) in a three-way playoff at Myrtle Beach and regrouped to put in a solid performance at the Memorial tournament. Hughes has played the last six Canadian Opens and if we excuse one missed cut, his form is great averaging around the 18th spot, twice in the top eight places.

Pendrith says he has played TPC Toronto’s North course over 50 times, and he was runner up here ahead of Jake Knapp (90/1 BetMGM) in third place, opening with a 63 for the first-round lead, in 2019 at PGA Tour Canada’s Osprey Valley Open. 

Having a clutch of players so evenly matched, can often leave you mulling over the each-way markets for value. Is it better places or better prices the way to go?

Taylor expects the TPC Toronto track to be lush and green, playing long, and with the rough up. He aced the “Rink” hole no.14 here in a special charity event last year and knows the course and venue more than any other player in the field. 

Pendrith is in great form currently, posting a top five finish at the PGA Championship and following it up with a closing round of 70 for a t12 at Memorial. Pendrith was fifth in ‘driving distance’ and first in strokes gained approach at Muirfield Village.

Nick Taylor grabbed another win at the Sony Open and is a much better player than the weekly odds portray. A recent top 20 at the Truist Championship was followed up by a solo fourth at the Memorial Tournament. 

Winner of his home open in 2023 Taylor will look to become a two-time Canadian Open champ in front of his home fans at Osprey Valley. The Canadian ranks 13th in ‘strokes gained approach’ and is a five-time PGA tour winner with three of those wins coming in the last two years.

Sam Burns has a fourth and a 10th place finish in the last three Canadian Opens and is starting to find his feet again on the PGA Tour after a new arrival in his family had his mind on other things for a year or so. 

Burns’ last six events have seen a form line of t46-t13-t30-t5, t19 at the PGA Championship and t12 at Memorial with a sneaky second round of 7-under par 65 thrown in there. Burns sits 36th in ‘total driving’ and leads the tour in putting.

FIRST's top betting tip for the RBC Canadian Open

Taylor Pendrith is in flying form and has the advantage of knowing the North course at TPC Toronto. Back the Canadian to win the tournament at 22/1 (10 places) each way with Coral.

Pick: Taylor Pendrith to win the tournament - 22/1 (10 places) - Coral

Extra tips

Sticking with the Canadians and in-form Nick Taylor will be looking to become a two-time winner of his national Open. Back him at 40/1 (six places) each way with BetMGM.

MacKenzie Hughes has a very good record in his home Open and recently lost in a playoff at Myrtle Beach. Back the in-form Canadian to win the tournament each way (six places) at 45/1 with BetMGM.

Sam Burns is simmering right now but looks to be regaining the form that put him among the elite golfers. Back the powerful flat stick wizard at 28/1 (six places) each way with BetMGM.

The RBC Canadian Open value bets

I’ll keep the powder dry for next week’s US Open and play just two outsiders here.

Calling Max Homa an outsider seems strange, but he had been struggling until the last month or two. 

Given some solid form of late he looks a nice price to get onside. Signs are there that Homa is turning a corner with a t12 finish at the Masters and he shot a second round 64 at Quail Hollow in the PGA Championship.

Ryo Hisatsune is a young potential Japanese superstar following in the footsteps of Hideki Matsuyama. 

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He has been prominent on my radar and the 22-year-old is starting to deliver the goods. Hisatsune already has one big win tucked away having banked the Open de France on the DP World Tour. 

Recently t5 at Valero, t4 at Valspar, top 20 at the RBC Heritage and t6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the Japanese star also featured over the first three rounds at the PGA Championship. 

Hisatsune ranks 10 out of 10 for ‘strokes gained total’ and ‘scoring average’ in my course fit model.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Canadian Open

Max Homa is showing several signs of returning to the form of old. Back the American each way (six places) at 80/1 with BetMGM.

Pick: Max Homa - each way (six places) - 80/1 - BetMGM

Ryo Hisatsune looks set to break out soon in the US and a big event win could be just around the corner. Back Hisatsune to win the Canadian Open at 60/1 (10 places) with Ladbrokes or Coral.

Pick: Ryo Hisatsune to win the Canadian Open - 60/1 (10 places) - Ladbrokes

Odds correct at the time of writing.