UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev – Who emerges from Chicago as undisputed middleweight champ?

The UFC’s famous Octagon heads to The Windy City as Chicago plays host to UFC 319, where a massive middleweight title matchup dominates the fight card.

The headline bout sees the undisputed 185-pound title on the line as reigning middleweight champion of the world Dricus du Plessis takes on the man expected to provide him with the toughest test of his championship reign to date, Khamzat Chimaev.

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The bout sits atop a stacked fight card full of entertaining matchups, but all eyes are firmly on the night’s headliner. Du Plessis looks to cement his status as the best middleweight on the planet as he takes on one of the most dangerous contenders in the division.

Tale of the tape: Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus du Plessis: Does DDP have all the answers, once again?

Ever since his arrival in the UFC back in 2020, South Africa’s Dricus Du Plessis has been proving the doubters wrong as he has climbed the middleweight division, earned his shot at championship gold and captured the belt. 

Even then, the doubters remained, and he silenced them again with back-to-back title defences. Now, with the wider MMA world seemingly finally waking up to the South African’s championship credentials, he finds himself in a title fight where the oddsmakers have him as a sizable underdog. 

Du Plessis traded knockouts in back-to-back fights with one of the hardest punchers, pound-for-pound, in mixed martial arts – Roberto Soldic – during his time with Polish promotion KSW, and he’s carried that same in-your-face approach to fights into the UFC, with great success.

Wins over respected opposition including Brad Tavares, Darren Till, Derek Brunson and former champion Robert Whittaker proved he was ready for a shot at the title, and his split-decision victory over Sean Strickland saw him crowned undisputed champ back in January 2024. 

His first title defence game against former UFC champion Israel Adesanya in a fight gave him a chance of winning. But Du Plessis levelled up and showed just how strong his overall MMA game is by standing and trading with the former kickboxing champion, before eventually submitting him in the fourth round in a brilliant display.

That set up a rematch with Strickland, where he eliminated any doubts over his first win with a complete domination in their return bout at UFC 312. It proved beyond question that Du Plessis was the UFC’s premier middleweight, and a more than deserving champion. 

But now, Du Plessis, who partnered with Betway at the start of the year, faces undefeated opposition in Chimaev, whose high-octane, uber-aggressive fighting style has overwhelmed everyone he’s faced so far.

Being overwhelmed isn’t really in Du Plessis’ character, so this one should make for a fascinating encounter.

Khamzat Chimaev: Is this finally the moment ‘Borz’ reaches the summit?

Put simply, Khamzat Chimaev is a scary individual. He made his name in the UFC by winning his first two bouts in the space of just 10 days. 

His Octagon debut saw him submit John Phillips in the second round of a middleweight bout on July 16, 2020. Then, on July 25, he TKO’d former Cage Warriors welterweight champion Rhys McKee in the first round. 

It set a new modern-era record for the fastest consecutive victories in UFC history and served notice to the middleweight and welterweight divisions that a new, dangerous force had arrived.

The mystique around Chimaev grew even more when he returned a little over a month later and knocked out American grappler Gerald Meerschaert in just 17 seconds. 

Then, a month after that, he dominated ranked welterweight contender Li Jingliang, even picking up the Chinese contender and walking him over to the fence before shouting at UFC president Dana White before eventually choking Li out in the first round.

Since then, Chimaev has defeated former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns, two-division stalwart Kevin Holland and former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (at middleweight).

Most recently, he crushed (quite literally) former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, with the gory results of his crushing power shared around the internet after his face crank submission left the Australian fan-favourite with a dislocated jaw.

It proved that Chimaev was ready to challenge for championship gold, and he’ll get his chance against Du Plessis on Saturday night in Chicago.

Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev: The key factors

This fight is a battle between the immovable object (Du Plessis) and the irresistible force (Chimaev), and it’s one that has longtime fight fans and journalists genuinely excited for what could play out on fight night.

Chimaev has been a force of nature in the UFC, and in most cases he’s blown away his opponents, either with his dominant wrestling and powerful grappling game, or with his heavy-handed striking. And for many, including the bookies, that dominant approach and undefeated record suggests he’ll do the same against Du Plessis this weekend.

One factor that helps support that approach is the appearance of vulnerability in the champion. Du Plessis is tougher than a two-dollar steak, but his style is far from optimal in terms of his fighting technique.

Talk of holes in his game features in the build-up to every one of his fights, yet it seems nobody has been able to take advantage of them in his fights. Could Chimaev change that?

On the flip side, however, Du Plessis has the one quality that trumps everything else in the Octagon – no matter what the opposition, he always finds a way to win. 

READ: Parimatch packing a punch as new UFC betting partner 

He hasn’t tasted defeat in the UFC, and while he’s had to go into the trenches with his opponents almost every single time, he has outworked, outbattled and outlasted each and every one of his opponents en route to the title.

And that’s what makes this matchup so fascinating. Chimaev is all gas with no brakes. But what happens when that gas runs out? Du Plessis has proved he can take anything and everything his opponents have thrown at him and still keep relentlessly moving forward.

If he can weather the early storm that’s likely to come from Chimaev this weekend, the odds of him winning the fight will shorten significantly. But he’s got to get through that storm first.

The best way to try to find an answer to that question lies in Chimaev’s recent past fights against world class opposition. He simply bullied Whittaker, who is a smaller middleweight, and one who relies more on his striking than his physicality at close quarters. 

Du Plessis is built like a truck, and a recent meeting with heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall suggested that the middleweight champion wouldn’t look out of place at light heavyweight, and could even be a very solid heavyweight, too. He’s unlikely to get tossed around like some of Chimaev’s past opponents.

But against Burns and Usman, Chimaev found himself against opposition that could neutralise his takedown threat and turn the fight into more of a stand-up war.

Chimaev was able to battle through and get the victory on both occasions, but neither win was dominant, and he was pushed hard in both. 

Du Plessis is significantly bigger, stronger, and hits much harder, than both Burns and Usman, and if the fight goes past the mid-way point, that strength and power, married to his prodigious conditioning, could well take over.

FIRST’s top tip for Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Taking all of the above into consideration, it all boils down to one question. Can Dricus Du Plessis get through the first two rounds against Khamzat Chimaev? If he does, he’s likely to win the fight, either on the scorecards, or via late TKO. 

Chimaev couldn’t get Usman or Burns out of there in 10 minutes, and Du Plessis should be even harder to deal with, so that’s the direction our pick will go this week. 

There’s huge value in taking Du Plessis to get the victory on the scorecards, with a whopping 6/1 available for a points win for the champion. If you fancy the fight to go the distance, those odds might be too good to pass up. 

The ‘double chance’ market, which should become available later this week, may also offer a chance to back him to win via decision or KO/TKO.

But given how we see this fight playing out, we like the fight parlay on BetMGM that offers 16/5 on Du Plessis to win and the fight to go over 2.5 rounds. That leaves every method of victory on the table for DDP, while following our theory that he’ll come on strong after the mid-way point in the fight. 

PICK: DRICUS DU PLESSIS TO WIN & OVER 2.5 ROUNDS @ 16/5 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

Looking through the rest of the fight card, there isn’t a huge amount of betting value to be found in the fight odds markets. 

If you wanted a little fight night acca to sit alongside our main event pick, a four-way accumulator backing Chase Hooper, Kai Asakura, Michael Page and Carlos Prates to win their respective bouts pays at 13/5. 

PICK: ACCUMULATOR (CHASE HOOPER, KAI ASAKURA, MICHAEL PAGE, CARLOS PRATES ALL TO WIN) @ 13/5 (BETMGM) 

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Odds correct at the time of writing.