UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs Hernandez – Georgian veteran clashes with 'Fluffy' for a shot at Middleweight elite

The UFC APEX plays host to another UFC Fight Night card as two mid-ranked middleweights look to break from the pack and move towards the division’s top names.

Georgia’s Roman Dolidze and America’s Anthony Hernandez are both middleweights few others in their weight class are keen to face at 185 pounds.

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They’re dangerous, tough to beat, and capable of defeating elite opposition when at their best. Now they’ve been pitched head-to-head in a bout that should propel the victor towards a bout with the middleweight elite.

But which one will make the jump? We break down the matchup and offer our top tips for fight night in Las Vegas.

Tale of the tape: Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez

Roman Dolidze: Can Georgian contender earn his stripes?

He might not be the biggest name in the UFC middleweight division, but Roman Dolidze is as legitimate a talent as you’ll find in the division, and he’s been mixing it with top-level opposition since 2022. 

That run, which has seen him go 4-2 with the promotion, started with a second-round TKO of former Cage Warriors champion and longtime mid-ranked contender Jack Hermansson.

That victory in Orlando earned Dolidze a Performance of the Night bonus and saw him moved up the UFC middleweight rankings.

A bout with Italy’s Marvin Vettori followed, as the pair battled to the scorecards in a back-and-forth war at UFC 286 in London, where NetBet have become the official betting partner in Europe. Despite thinking he’d done enough to win the fight, Dolidze lot a decision to Vettori.

Then, after back-to-back bookings with Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier both fell through due to injuries to his opponents, he faced French contender Nassourdine Imavov and after another razor-close encounter, was edged out on the scorecards again, this time by majority decision. 

Since then, Dolidze has rebounded in fine style. He outworked former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith at UFC 303, then stopped Kevin Holland at the end of the first round at UFC 307.

Most recently, he rematched Vettori and avenged that 2023 loss by claiming a unanimous decision victory at the UFC APEX in March.

Now Dolidze is back at the APEX, and ready to add another dangerous name to his resumé when he takes on Hernandez.

Anthony Hernandez: Can “Fluffy” make it eight in a row?

He may own arguably the least intimidating nickname in the UFC, but Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez is anything but soft. The American is a prolific finisher of fights, and is more than capable of getting the job down with strikes or submissions, though his record shows a propensity to finish fights with his grappling skills – eight of his 14 wins have come via submission.

Hernandez heads into this weekend’s main event with Dolidze in stellar form. He’s riding a seven-fight win streak that stretches back to 2021. That streak could potentially have been even longer, had he not been cursed with incredibly bad luck in his matchups.

Since January 2021, Hernandez has seen no fewer than 10 fights fall through. But despite the stop-start nature of his career over the last four years, he’s made it count whenever he’s stepped into the Octagon.

Victories over former BJJ world champion Rodolfo Vieira (by submission, no less), Josh Fremd, Marc-Andre Barriault, Edmen Shahbazyan, Roman Kopylov, Michal Pereira and Brendan Allen have seen Hernandez build some serious momentum in the UFC’s 185-pound division, and now is the time for him to start getting matchups against top-ranked opposition.

The bridge fight that could get him there takes place this weekend, when he faces Dolidze. If he can add the Georgian to his lengthy win streak, Hernandez’s case for a fight with a top-five contender would surely be too loud to ignore.

Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez: The key factors

One thing we know we’re going to get for sure in this fight is action. Anthony Hernandez is the most relentless fighter in the middleweight division.

He pushes the pace constantly and mixes up strikes with takedowns extremely well. That, plus his seven-fight win streak, has made him the sizeable betting favourite for this fight. But while the bookies are strongly siding with Hernandez to get the job done here, this bout looks a much more competitive fight than the odds suggest.

That’s due to a number of factors.

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Firstly, Dolidze hasn’t been dominated in any of his prior fights in the UFC, and has shown the sort of gritty toughness needed to prevail in these sorts of knock-down, drag-out matchups. He’s also done it at light heavyweight, too.

So we know that he’s strong, durable, and can hang with bigger, stronger, harder-hitting fighters than Hernandez. Additionally, while Dolidze’s win streak might not be as impressive as Hernandez’s run, his victories have come against a higher level of opposition. 

Hernandez is a serious threat, for sure, and his pace and output, along with his impressive finishing rate, makes him a real danger for Dolidze. So far, nobody has been able to stand up to Hernandez’s pressure. Could Dolidze be the man to change that? A key stat to consider here – Dolidze has never been stopped in his MMA career.

FIRST’s top tip for Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez

When you consider all of the factors above, it makes the 27/100 odds on a Hernandez win look very stingy indeed.

Leaning the other way and chasing some value makes more sense here, and the 19/2 on Dolidze to edge it on the scorecards after five wild rounds looks huge.

If you’re feeling brave, that’s the best value bet on the board, but we’ll play it a touch safer and go with the outright win market instead, and just take Dolidze to get the win, by any method, at 14/5.

PICK: ROMAN DOLIDZE TO WIN @ 14/5 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

Seeing as we’re being a little brave and backing against the favourites this week, let’s highlight another fight where the underdog may have a better chance of success than their odds suggest.

Angela “Overkill” Hill is one of the founding members of the UFC’s women’s strawweight division, and she’s still improving as a fighter.

Her striking skills allow her to stand and trade with anyone in the division, while her wrestling and grappling, once her Achilles heel, have developed significantly over the years. 

Hill is a 13/8 underdog against Braziil’s Iasmin Lucindo, a fighter who has significant wins over the likes of Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez.

But Hill, whose career has had its share of wins and losses, has the ability to take the fight all the way to the scorecards. And with her stand-up abilities, she might just do enough to edge two of the three rounds and claim the win on the scorecards. That’s a 21/10 chance, and one that’s well worth a small side bet.

PICK: ANGELA HILL TO WIN BY DECISION @ 21/10 (BETMGM) 

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Odds correct at the time of writing.