ATP China Open betting preview: Sinner to be the winner once again?

Following a pulsating Laver Cup battle between Europe and the USA and some fascinating Davis Cup ties, the brass tacks of the ATP Tour returns again here in Beijing.

The Asian swing of the season always throws up some fascinating matchups and with the ATP World Tour finals looming in November, there is still plenty to play for in 2025.

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Having shared the last eight grand slam singles titles between them, both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are stretching away at the very top of the men’s game.

With Alcaraz opting to play in Japan this week, all eyes turn on Sinner – who won this event in 2023 and was edged out in the final by – you guessed it – Alcaraz, last season.

Now an ATP 500 event, there is plenty on the line here in the Chinese capital and it should be a decent event, on the hard courts in Beijing.

The favourites

It has been another incredible campaign for Jannik Sinner in 2025, with he and Carlos Alcaraz pushing the needle even further at the sharp end of the men’s game.

He came agonisingly close to a second China Open title in a row last year and he is out to make amends this week in Beijing.

The absence of Alcaraz is a huge tick in the box for Sinner, who seems to have the measure of almost everybody else operating on tour right now.

With a clear chasm between himself and the chasing pack, Jannik sinner is the firm favourite for the 2025 China Open title at 6/4 with Mr.Play.

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Perennial nearly man Alexander Zverev has huffed and puffed in 2025, with not much success but he will be chasing a strong week here in China.

It does feel as if the German is very much the best of the rest on tour currently and he has work to do if he is to catch up with Sinner and Alcaraz above him in the world rankings.

Beijing should suit his style though and he is a popular figure in China and with plenty of support backing him, this could be a good week for Alexander Zverev.

He looks like the most likely player in the draw to stop Jannik Sinner and he looks decent value to go all the way here in Beijing at 9/2 with ZetBet.

FIRST’s top tip for the ATP China Open

It is hardly a risky strategy to back Jannik Sinner to win any ATP Tour event and refreshed from his US Open runner-up showing, the Italian looks good value to win another big tournament on the circuit this week.

Pick: Jannik Sinner to win ATP China Open (outright) – 6/4 with Mr.Play.

The value plays 

The last few weeks have been hugely positive for Alex de Minaur, who went well at the US Open, before backing those performances up at the Laver Cup.

With the Australian becoming a household name on tour, he could pick up some extra support here in China and he has plenty of draw protection from third seed.

Avoiding Sinner in the same half of the draw feels significant but de Minaur still represents real value at 4/1 to reach the final with Vegasland.

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Not having Alcaraz in the mix here in China also opens up a complete half of the draw and mercurial operator Alexander Bublik could well be the beneficiary.

The man from Kazakhstan is one of the most exciting players to watch on the circuit and he poses problems for everybody he faces.

Going all the way and winning this one would be a coup for Bublik but he is playing as well as he ever has been at this level, and he could be worth a look to win the tournament at 10/1 with BetMGM.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.