ATP Shanghai 2025 betting tips: Czech mate and Djok to roll back the clock?

The withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz on the eve of the main draw has certainly given an open feel to the 2025 Shanghai Masters and the general consensus is that Jannik Sinner stands to benefit.

Bottom half of the draw

While the Italian is yet to really be stretched in the Asian swing, he cruised to victory at the China Open in Beijing last week and has looked the part in Shanghai thus far.

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Seeded two, Sinner does have plenty of draw protection, but he will have to navigate a potentially tricky route of Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic, if he is to reach the final.

Betting against Sinner is certainly not the done thing, especially with 1000 ranking points to defend. He has been backed steadily for the title all week and is now as short as 8/13 with Mr.Play to win his second consecutive Shanghai Masters title.

The aforementioned Djokovic has been on the periphery all season with Alcaraz and Sinner dominating but he has lifted the title in Shanghai on more times than any other player.

His opening round win over Marin Cilic was arguably the best he has played in a few months, with both veterans putting on an absolute classic for the Chinese crowd.

The Serb is on course to play Sinner in the semi-finals and will start as the underdog, but his big-game experience still shows glimpses of coming to the fore.

Winning the title here in Shanghai would be a major coup for Djokovic but he can never be discarded, and he is worth keeping an eye on to lift the trophy at 7/1 with Betway.

Top half of the draw

No Alcaraz was always going to blow open the top half of the draw, but further results have left a very unfamiliar look to proceedings.

Alexander Zverev is never too far away in tournaments such as this, and the third seed certainly has the best credentials of anybody else in the top half, but the German’s form has been patchy at best in 2025.

His path to the final looks far from easy though and emerging Czech star Jiri Lehecka could well be his opponent in the last 16.

Ranking points are key for Zverev though if he is to hold on to his place inside the world’s top 10 at the end of the year and he represents decent value to win his maiden Shanghai Masters title at 8/1 across most UK bookmakers.

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Should Lehecka prevail from a highly-tracked clash with Zverev, perhaps the young enigma will emerge as the man most likely to challenge Sinner and co.

2025 has been a real year of promise for Lehecka, who could break the world’s top dozen players with a tournament win here and he looks to have as good a chance as anybody at 22/1 with ZetBet.

Another man with a point to prove and a body of work at this level to call upon is Daniil Medvedev and the 16th seed has been quietly going about his business this week.

He looked in good nick last week in Beijing too and at 25/1 to win the tournament with Mr.Play, he is certainly one to keep an eye on.

Top of half value bets

Pick: Jannik Sinner - 8/13 (Mr.Play)

Pick: Novak Djokovic - 7/1 (Betway)

Bottom half value bets

Pick: Alexander Zverev - 8/1 (various bookmakers)

Pick: Jiri Lehecka - 22/1 (Zetbet)

Pick: Daniil Medvedev - 25/1 (Mr.Play)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.