Erste Bank Open 2025 betting tips: Medvedev to make late bid in Race to Turin?

The 51st edition of the Erste Bank Open kicks off in Vienna on Monday, marking the next stop on the indoor hardcourt swing following a trio of ATP 250 tournaments last week.

Jack Draper is the reigning champion but misses out due to injury. The previous winner, Jannik Sinner, is in attendance off the back of his triumph at the Six Kings Slam in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

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The favourites 

Unsurprisingly, Sinner enters as the clear favourite to claim what would be his fourth ATP title of the season. His last appearance on tour ended prematurely when he was forced to retire against Tallon Griekspoor in the brutal Shanghai conditions.

However, any concerns about the Italian’s fitness were quickly put to rest as he cruised through the Six Kings Slam, winning three matches in straight sets and pocketing a cool $6 million in the process.

There are no first-round byes for the eight seeds in Vienna, meaning Sinner will need to win five matches to lift the trophy. He opens against Daniel Altmaier, with a tricky second-round clash looming against Tomas Machac, the Czech who captured the Mexican Open title at ATP 500 level earlier this year.

Sinner could also face Alexander Bublik in the quarter-finals, the only player other than Carlos Alcaraz to have beaten him in a completed match this term.

The world number two’s biggest threat in the top half of the draw is likely Alex de Minaur - the Australian who pushed Sinner to a deciding set in Beijing before going on to reach the quarter-finals at the Shanghai Masters.

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De Minaur is a four-time indoor hardcourt finalist, including once this year, when he was runner-up to Alcaraz in Rotterdam.

While Sinner’s route to the final is far from straightforward, it’s still not a particularly appealing section from an outright betting perspective. 

After fading in China, he’ll be determined to make amends in Vienna. It may be wiser to steer clear of the top half and focus on the bottom half for potential opportunities.

What about Zverev?

Ordinarily, Alexander Zverev would make for a strong each-way contender given his proven pedigree on indoor hard courts. 

However, it’s hard to have much confidence in him at the moment. The German’s form has been patchy, and concerns over his fitness persist after he revealed last week that he’s dealing with a shoulder injury, the latest in a string of physical setbacks he’s endured in 2025.

Daniil Medvedev appears to have rediscovered his complete game. After reaching back-to-back semi-finals in China, he capped off his recent surge by winning the Almaty Open on Sunday, his first title since May 2023, ending a run of six consecutive final defeats.

FIRST’s top tip - Erste Bank Open 

Remarkably, Medvedev still has a chance to book his place at next month’s ATP Finals in Turin. 

He’ll need to keep up his current consistency to make that happen, and that seems entirely feasible at a venue where he prevailed back in 2021.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev (each-way) to win the Erste Bank Open - 8/1 with Betfred

Extra tip

Karen Khachanov may not be matching the level of his compatriot Medvedev, but indoor hard courts remain his natural habitat, and he often finds form at this stage of the season. 

Last year, he captured the Almaty Open before finishing runner-up in Vienna, and the former Paris Masters champion looks worth an each-way look once again, especially considering he was playing some outstanding tennis as recently as the Canadian Open three months ago.

Pick: Karen Khachanov (each-way) to win the Erste Bank Open - 28/1 with Ladbrokes

The value picks 

With the Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot final in Shanghai still fresh in the memory, there’s every reason to take a look at some long shots this week, and even more so with Alcaraz absent from the field.

Zverev’s struggles only make the bottom half even more appealing, and there’s still room to add to the outright portfolio, even with a single-figure contender like Medvedev already onside.

Corentin Moutet is likely to attract some interest after his recent run to the final in Kazakhstan, where he was beaten by Medvedev. The pair could meet again as early as the second round this week, and that potential rematch is enough to deter backing the Frenchman who is still chasing his first ATP Tour crown.

Griekspoor couldn’t build on his strong showing against Sinner in Shanghai and suffered a first-round exit in Stockholm. His game is well suited to indoor hard courts, and he is a three-time ATP title winner, but with Khachanov standing across the net in round one, preference is for the Russian.

READ MORE: Betting on tennis underdogs - the strategy of risk vs reward

Khachanov vs Griekspoor is one of the standout first-round clashes, but the headline act has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas against Lorenzo Musetti, a stylish showdown between two of the sport’s finest one-handed backhands.

Musetti has been by far the busier of the two this year, and that workload could play into Tsitsipas’ hands. Fatigue may be less of a factor for the Greek, and if he can pull off the minor upset, it might open the door for a solid tournament for him.

If he wins, Tsitsipas would play either clay specialist Tomas Martin Etcheverry or the inexperienced Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in round two, leaving the door ajar for a possible quarter-final berth.

FIRST’s value pick - Erste Bank Open 

Tsitsipas’s surprise title run in Dubai earlier this year showed how quickly he can catch fire, and a repeat in Vienna would feel very similar. 

With a worn-out Musetti up first and a manageable path in round two, the former world number three has a real chance to settle in early and play his way into the tournament.

Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas (each-way) to win the Erste Bank Open - 50/1 with Betfred

Also worth considering 

Aleksandar Kovacevic rounds off the staking plan, with the American beginning his campaign against Matteo Arnaldi.

Kovacevic got to an ATP 250 indoor hardcourt final in France in January and is well suited to these conditions. Arnaldi, meanwhile, has endured a difficult time and historically hasn’t thrived on quicker surfaces. The Italian’s ranking has slipped below Kovacevic’s, reflecting that slump.

While Zverev could await in round two, he has looked out of sorts recently and isn’t a player to be feared.

Pick: Aleksandar Kovacevic (each-way) to win the Erste Bank Open - 100/1 with Ladbrokes

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Odds correct at the time of writing.