ATP Paris Masters 2025 betting tips: Ruud to push for ATP Finals place

The Masters 1000 series for 2025 concludes as usual in Paris. This year, it is at a new venue, with La Défense Arena hosting for the first time.

Reports suggest the playing conditions will be slower than in past editions, with tournament director Cedric Pioline noting that the aim is to match those at next month’s ATP Finals in Turin. “We will have perfect uniformity across the four courts. The goal is to facilitate the players' transition towards the end of the season,” he said.

A spot in Turin remains up for grabs for several players around the top eight, adding extra motivation alongside the $1.1m winner’s prize.

Love tennis? Find the best tennis betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

The favourites 

Just over a week after meeting in the Six Kings Slam final in Saudi Arabia, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz return to the same draw, heading the market as co-favourites.

Since being crowned in Riyadh, Sinner has added another trophy, this time an official ATP Tour title, as he claimed the Erste Bank Open.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, took last week off after his trip to the Middle East and should have a freshness advantage over his rival.

Like all top-eight seeds, both players receive a bye into the second round in Paris. Alcaraz will open against either Cameron Norrie or Sebastian Baez, and he arrives in good spirits after praising the new courts at this week’s location.

“It’s totally different from last year,” said Alcaraz. “It’s much slower, but I like it this way. We can see real tennis, with long rallies and not just serves and short points. For me, it’s a really good speed. I’ve always said that I prefer slower courts."

The move to slow it down might not please Alexander Zverev, who has been vocal on the subject this month, saying: “I hate it when court speeds are the same everywhere. I know that tournament directors are going in this direction because, obviously, they want Sinner and Alcaraz to succeed in every tournament. We've always had different surfaces: you couldn't play the same tennis in the same way on grass, hard, and clay. Today, you can play almost the same way on every surface. For Federer, this must change.”

Despite those frustrations, Zverev can take plenty from his narrow loss to Sinner in the Vienna final and deserves respect in the market as he looks to defend his Paris title.

Both are in the same half of the draw, though Zverev could face another high-ranked Italian, Lorenzo Musetti, before a possible Sinner rematch.

Taylor Fritz is the main obstacle between Alcaraz and the final, but it would take a big effort from the American after such a busy run of tournaments. There are many tough opponents in his quarter, including sixth seed Alex De Minaur, big-serving Alexander Bublik, newly crowned Swiss Indoors champion Joao Fonseca, and former Paris winner Karen Khachanov.

EXPLAINED: How to bet on tennis in-play: strategies, advice and markets explained

FIRST’s top tip for ATP Paris

Most of the first-round ties in the second quarter are difficult to call, but Khachanov’s clash with Ethan Quinn could help him halt a five-match skid and rediscover form at a part of the season he usually enjoys.

There are no easy matches beyond that, but Khachanov has the game to trouble anyone, as he showed as recently as the Canadian Open, where he was edged out by Ben Shelton in the final.

Pick: Karen Khachanov to win the second quarter - 16/1 with Ladbrokes.

Extra tip

All signs suggest conditions will be slower than usual this week. While that can’t be fully confirmed until the main draw begins, it could pay to get ahead of the curve with an each-way bet on Casper Ruud, who just won in Stockholm on slow indoor courts.

Ruud has also performed well in Turin, the conditions Pioline is aiming to replicate, having beaten Alcaraz there last year after reaching the final in 2022.

Pick: Casper Ruud (each-way) to win the ATP Paris Masters - 80/1 @ Betway.

The value picks 

The dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz in the betting pushes some exceptionally talented players out to prices you wouldn’t typically expect. Some of those have got to be tempting, especially at a Masters 1000 event, where results are far more volatile than at Grand Slams.

If the courts do play slower, it won’t just suit the big servers. Baseline grinders could also come into contention, making it harder to rule out players as confidently as we might when court speed is more predictable.

Events late in the season can produce unexpected finalists. Ugo Humbert did so here last year, while Valentin Vacherot and Arthur Rinderknech did the same in Shanghai this month.

Remarkably, the cousins could be set for a second-round encounter here, with each of them priced at 300/1 to emerge victorious at the Paris Masters. Also available at triple-figure odds are Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (150/1) and Joao Fonseca (125/1), who beat him in straight sets in the Basel final on Sunday.

READ MORE: Betting on tennis underdogs - the strategy of risk vs reward

FIRST’s value pick for ATP Paris

Indoor hard courts are Humbert’s speciality, so it’s surprising to see him priced so high here. Reaching the Paris final last year remains one of his biggest career achievements, but it was no fluke. 

He was already a three-time indoor hard-court champion and has since reached two more finals, winning one in Marseille and finishing runner-up in Stockholm recently in conditions that may be akin to these.

Pick: Ugo Humbert (each-way) to win the ATP Paris Masters - 250/1 with 10bet.

Also worth considering 

He endured a demanding Asian swing as a result of his own success, but Learner Tien should now be well rested and ready to continue his impressive progress.

The American shares the fourth quarter with Sinner, who just came through a week in Vienna that ended with a two-and-a-half-hour final. With the ATP Finals in his home country on the horizon, Sinner may even withdraw from Paris.

Ben Shelton also sits in this section and is a key reason for Tien’s big price, but the fifth seed remains a question mark after his shoulder injury.

Tien would need a few things to fall his way, but at the odds, he looks worth an interest to make a run here.

Pick: Learner Tien to win the fourth quarter - 33/1 with Coral.

Responsible gambling with FIRST.com 

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.