ATP Shanghai Masters 2025 betting tips and predictions: Zverev to disrupt the status quo?

2025 has undoubtedly been all about Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, with the top two players on the planet asserting their dominance across the ATP Tour this season.

With two grand slams bagged each, both the Italian and the Spaniard have wrestled over the world number one spot, and they are blazing an unmatched trail at the sharp end of men’s tennis.

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Yet with Alcaraz opting to pull out of the event here in Shanghai due to injury, it looks as if a bit of an open goal has presented itself for Sinner but there will be plenty of big names looking to cash in on the Spaniard’s absence.

The Asian swing on the ATP Tour is a hugely well received period on the calendar and fans come out in force to watch their heroes, with the pinnacle being the Shanghai Masters.

Played out at the iconic Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Shanghai has hosted the event since 2009 and with 1000 ranking points on the line, it is a huge one on the calendar for all the top performers on tour.

Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer have all lifted the Shanghai Masters title on multiple occasions, testament to its standing in the calendar and there is plenty to play for ahead of the ATP World Tour finals in Turin to conclude the year.

With 96 players in the draw, it is also one of the biggest fields outside of the grand slams and it should be a fascinating fortnight of tennis in Shanghai.

ATP Shanghai Masters - The favourites

The aforementioned top two have been in fine fettle over the past couple of weeks in Asia and they should be primed and ready here in Shanghai.

Sinner is the defending champion, having triumphed over Novak Djokovic in the 2024 final and he has made light work in reaching the last 4 in Beijing this week at the China Open.

Hard court tennis undoubtedly suits his game and the quick courts here as summer draws to a close in Shanghai, should give even more zip to his serve and ground strokes.

Having to defend 1000 ranking points does heap a touch of pressure on Sinner here, who finds himself behind Alcaraz in the world rankings currently.

However, he knows what it takes to beat the Spaniard and win the title here in Shanghai, so he has plenty going for him and Sinner looks set to lead the market at 7/4 to win the 2025 edition of the event with Mr.Play.

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The best of the rest

The absence of Alcaraz may well have opened up a path for Alexander Zverev, who is seeded 3 and has managed to avoid the Italian in the draw.

Zverev feels like the most obvious contender to challenge Sinner, with the German having reached the final her back in 2019 and his hard court game is always dangerous.

He has endured a few disappointing recent outings though, with a couple of heavy losses at the Laver Cup backed up with a tame loss to Daniil Medvedev in Beijing earlier this week.

That said, Zverev can turn on the style when he wants to and he does get plenty of draw protection from the third seed.

He will need to find another gear, but Alexander Zverev feels it is worth a look at 5/1 with BetMGM to win his first ATP Tour title since April.

There is a very open feel to the top half of the draw here in Shanghai and one man who could well benefit is Ben Shelton.

There is a real swagger about the way the American plays and with power across both his serve and his ground strokes, he could cause absolute carnage from the 6th seed.

David Goffin won’t be an easy opponent in round one, nor will a prospective meeting with US Open semi finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last 16 but Shelton has been playing some good stuff of late.

Value can be found across plenty of the field outside of Sinner and Ben Shelton could go all the way here in Shanghai at 14/1 with Betway.

FIRST’s top tip for the ATP Shanghai Masters

Any event that either Sinner or Alcaraz does feel like a bit of a formality and there appears to be no option but to follow the trend.

Outside of the World Tour Finals, this is the biggest event left on the calendar in 2025, and Sinner will want to strike a decisive blow before the campaign ends.

Sinner couldn’t manage a win in New York last month, but he should be extra motivated by that loss in the Big Apple. He also looked in the groove in Beijing last week and he has some substantial ranking points to defend in Shanghai.

While there will be plenty of people hoping to take his title off him, Jannik Sinner is the standout name in the draw here in Shanghai and he looks reasonable to go back-to-back and win the title once again in 2025.

Pick: Shanghai Masters – Outright Winner: Jannik Sinner – 4/5 with Mr.Play.

ATP Shanghai Masters - Extra tips

With 96 players in the draw, there will be plenty of players carrying hopes over the next couple of weeks in Shanghai and form feels significant at this late stage of the campaign.

Daniil Medvedev won this event back in 2019 and despite a tough 12 months or so, he has been slowly showing signs of returning to his best form.

Whether he has enough to go all the way remains to be seen but he looks like great value to win his quarter at 6/1 with Zetbet and he’ll be desperate to avoid the ‘big two’.

Similarly, Australian Alex de Minaur has been showing great form in recent weeks, and he is battling away to secure his place inside the world’s top 8, ahead of the World Tour Finals.

Avoiding both Sinner and Alcaraz will also be key to his chances, but de Minaur has a game that suits hard courts, and he could also end up winning his quarter at a very tempting 6/1 with Vegasland.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.