US Open 2025 betting tips: Alexandrova vs Swiatek, Sabalenka vs Vondrousova, Lehecka vs Alcaraz

As the US Open enters its second week, plenty of seeds have already fallen by the wayside, but the headline names, and crucially still some of FIRST’s value bets, are still firmly in play. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are still on track for a blockbuster clash in the men’s competition, while Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek continue to move through the rounds in the women’s.

Coco Gauff is also right in the thick of it despite her recent struggles, and she faces one of the most anticipated matches of the tournament so far when she takes on Naomi Osaka on Monday.

Love tennis? Find the best tennis betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek - Monday 6PM UK

Swiatek went off as the tournament favourite, but her last two performances have fallen short of that billing. The Pole surprisingly dropped a set against Suzan Lamens in round two, and in both that match and her third-round meeting with Anna Kalinskaya, she produced more unforced errors than winners.

FIRST’s top tip for Alexandrova vs Swiatek

Ekaterina Alexandrova has won two of her three previous outdoor hard-court matches against Swiatek and comes into this contest in excellent form. Unless the second seed raises her level significantly from what she has shown in her last two outings, this could prove a far sterner test than expected.

Pick: Ekaterina Alexandrova +4.5 games (5/6 with 10bet)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova - Tuesday TBC

Many had pencilled in a power-hitting quarter-final between Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, but Marketa Vondrousova ripped up the script. The Czech, who was tipped for another deep Wimbledon run after lifting the Berlin title in June, suffered an early exit at SW19, yet she is reminding everyone of her grand slam pedigree in 2025 following her injury layoff.

FIRST’s top tip for Sabalenka vs Vondrousova

Sabalenka eased past Cristina Bucsa in round four, but this challenge is on another level. While she leads Vondrousova 5-4 in their head-to-head, the Czech has taken two of the last three encounters and looks a live underdog at attractive odds.

Pick: Marketa Vondrousova to win (5/2 with Betfred)

Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcaraz - Tuesday TBC

Alcaraz has strolled into the quarter-finals with minimal resistance. Fresh off his Cincinnati title, the Spaniard looked brimming with confidence and dropped serve just once throughout the opening week.

FIRST’s top tip for Lehecka vs Alcaraz

It may be brave, or foolish, to oppose Alcaraz in this mood, but a 7.5-game handicap feels generous. Both of his battles with Jiri Lehecka this season have gone the distance in best-of-three format, suggesting the world number 21 has the tools to keep this one competitive.

Pick: Jiri Lehecka +7.5 games (Evens with Betway)

Outrights

As has been the case for most of the year, a Sinner vs Alcaraz final feels almost inevitable, but the women’s draw still carries the potential for one or two surprise finalists.

10bet offers a few special markets including who will go furthest between Alcaraz and Sinner. The Italian is 4/6, while Alcaraz can be found at 11/10 to best Sinner.

Here's more: The strategy to betting on grand slams in tennis

Stern tests lie ahead for Sabalenka as she chases her first major of 2025, while Swiatek’s latest displays were concerning. As for Gauff, overcoming her inconsistencies and double-fault issues to capture a second US Open title would be a remarkable achievement.

FIRST’s top tip for the women’s singles

The third quarter was always earmarked as a section of opportunity, and that remains true deep into the tournament. The winner of Karolina Muchova vs Marta Kostyuk will meet either Gauff or Osaka, and both Europeans will fancy their chances.

Muchova’s fitness was a question mark coming into New York, but she has looked physically sound so far and has been part of some high-quality contests. A semi-finalist here in each of the past two years, the Czech has every chance of going at least one step further this time.

FIRST’s value pick at the beginning of the tournament Jessica Pegula is now a 12/1 (BetMGM) shot to win the US Open, after opening at 33/1 with Coral. 

Pick: Karolína Muchova to win the women’s singles each-way (33/1 with Betfred)

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.