2025 US Open betting tips, value picks, underdogs and grand slam predictions

Flushing Meadows sets the stage for the final grand slam of 2025 - a season defined by the dominance of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s game, while the women’s majors have seen the honours more evenly spread. 

The polarising mixed doubles event delivered its share of drama, but now attention turns to the singles, with the main draws getting underway on Sunday 24 August 2025. 

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The favourites

Men’s draw

Sinner and Alcaraz continue to operate in a league of their own. While many of their rivals sharpened up in Washington and Toronto, the world’s top two delayed their North American hard-court campaigns until Cincinnati. 

Yet still marched through to the final, despite having less time on the surface than their peers.

Alcaraz claimed his maiden title in Ohio, though fans were denied an epic showdown with Sinner as the Italian, struggling with illness, retired trailing 0-5 in the first set.

Sinner was odds-on for the US Open before Cincinnati, but his price has drifted slightly following those physical concerns. If a stomach bug was the sole problem, the market drift may prove an overreaction.

Want more? Short priced value bets - are they worth it? And how the small edges stack up

For Alcaraz, though, it was the perfect response to the disappointment of surrendering his Wimbledon title. Hard courts may be his least productive surface at grand slam level, but last week’s run will have given him a significant lift.

The Spaniard faces no soft landing in New York, opening against big-serving American Reilly Opelka, with a tricky path ahead that could see Daniil Medvedev waiting in the fourth round.

Sinner, too, may face an early test in the shape of Alexei Popyrin - last year’s Canadian Open winner, who went on to knock out Novak Djokovic at Flushing Meadows.

Women’s draw

Aryna Sabalenka arrives in the ‘Big Apple’ as the defending champion and had long been favoured to retain her US Open crown. 

But a season without a grand slam triumph and a dip in form have seen her overtaken by Iga Swiatek, who comes in at the peak of her powers.

Surprisingly, it was the grasscourt swing, rather than the clay, where Swiatek found her mojo after a patchy 12 months. The Pole swept to the Wimbledon title for the loss of just one set, before claiming top honours in Cincinnati with relative ease.

The second seed has been handed a favourable draw, with Amanda Anisimova - whom she double-bageled in the Wimbledon final - standing out as the biggest threat in her quarter.

Sabalenka faces a far tougher route, potentially having to navigate past former US Open finalist and 2025 Washington champion Leylah Fernandez, the rapidly rising Clara Tauson, and the highly fancied Elena Rybakina just to make the semi-finals.

Coco Gauff would normally be counted among the favourites, but her season has unravelled since winning the French Open. A coaching shake-up was fairly inevitable, though the timing - coming so close to her home major - is open to question.

FIRST’s top tip for the US Open 2025

The market has rallied behind Swiatek, and rightly so. Aside from some serving wobbles in her Cincinnati final win over Jasmine Paolini, there are few doubts about her game right now. 

Even while not at her best, she brushed aside the world number eight in straight sets on Monday. With this draw, she could reach the semi-finals here without ever needing to hit top gear.

From there, it comes down to her ability to deliver on the biggest stage, and a flawless 6–0 record in major finals speaks for itself.

Pick: Iga Swiatek to win the women’s singles (3/1 with Betway)

Extra tips

The first quarter of the women’s draw is stacked. Sabalenka may be an even-money favourite, but with the obstacles in her path, she has to be worth opposing.

Rybakina beat the Belarusian 6-1, 6-4 in Cincinnati, but she remains an underachiever at majors and has never been beyond the third round in New York.

Emma Raducanu has found some form, but it’s still a tough ask for her to go as far as the semi-finals as an unseeded player. 

Paolini has had a great fortnight, and Marketa Vondrousova is a class act, but I can’t believe that Tauson is a bigger prize than all of the above to emerge from this section.

She pushed Sabalenka hard in Melbourne and fell in another tight battle to Anisimova at Roland Garros, before defeating Rybakina in the Wimbledon third round and then bowing out to Swiatek while under the weather.

Outside the Slams, she lifted the Auckland title in January, was runner-up at the Dubai WTA 1000, and got to the semi-finals in Montreal this month. 

Along the way, she’s chalked up wins over Madison Keys (twice), Naomi Osaka, Elina Svitolina, Sabalenka, and Swiatek.

Pick: Clara Tauson to win quarter 1 of the women’s singles (14/1 with Ladbrokes)

The value picks

The presence of Sinner and Alcaraz naturally pushes the odds of other contenders into more tempting territory. 

Yet any perceived each-way value has come to nothing at the last two Slams - and again in Cincinnati.

READ: Betting on tennis underdogs: The strategy of risk vs reward

There is every chance it’s no different in New York, but Alcaraz has not made a hardcourt Grand Slam final since 2022, so perhaps there is an opening in his half.

FIRST’s value pick for the US Open 2025

Ben Shelton gets the nod as an each-way shout to try and get Alcaraz beat. They are projected to meet in the quarter-finals, but it is the American who has the more straightforward route to get there.

The Canadian Open marked the biggest title of Shelton’s career, and it’s hard to imagine a better tune-up for the grand slam at which he first broke through with a semi-final run two years ago.

His serve is a huge weapon, but lately it’s his improving return game that has caught the eye. Shelton has a habit of rising to the occasion, and he’s beginning to look every inch the complete player.

Pick: Ben Shelton to win the men’s singles each-way (22/1 with Betfred)

Also worth considering

Taylor Fritz also finds himself in the bottom half alongside Alcaraz and Shelton. Normally, being drawn in the same quarter as Djokovic would be a major red flag, as the Serbian has never lost to him. 

But at 38, and without a slam final since 2023, this may be Fritz’s best chance to get past the four-time US Open champion. 

A finalist in New York last year, Fritz has backed that up with a strong 2025 campaign, collecting two titles, reaching a pair of ATP 1000 hard-court semi-finals, and being very competitive against Alcaraz in their Wimbledon semi-final.

Pick: Taylor Fritz to win the men’s singles each-way (28/1 with 10bet)

It’s been a challenging spell for Jessica Pegula since her first-round exit at Wimbledon, but her US Open odds still look a shade generous, particularly given the make-up of her quarter.

Her recent results may leave plenty to be desired, but overall, it’s still been a solid season for last year’s US Open runner-up, and at 33/1. So a small each-way interest to rediscover her best level looks a shrewd play.

Pick: Jessica Pegula to win the women’s singles each-way (33/1 with Coral)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.