2025 WTA singles French Open betting tips: Sabalenka fav, but Gauff backed for Roland Garros glory

With a pair of WTA 1000 events in the books on clay, the best players in the world are set to compete at Roland Garros, where there is a feeling that the women’s tournament is more open than in recent years.

Iga Swiatek is trophyless since her 2024 French Open victory, offering hope to the rest of the contenders that the ‘queen of clay’ could be vulnerable despite having lifted the Suzanne-Lenglen Cup in four of the last five years.

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We’ve already detailed our early value picks ahead of the WTA and ATP French Open action, but here’s your no-holds-barred breakdown of the women’s side of the draw at Roland Garros. 

The favourites

Swiatek is so used to being the overwhelming favourite at Roland Garros, but that is not the case this year for the three-time defending champion. 

The Pole has participated in three clay-court tournaments in the lead-up to the French Open. 

She was beaten in her second match in two of them, and while she did reach the semi-finals at the Madrid Open, she struggled past opponents she would normally sweep aside before being dominated 6-1, 6-1 by Coco Gauff in the semi-finals.

Swiatek’s dip in form has resulted in a drop to number five in the WTA Rankings - something that will make her task even more difficult over the coming fortnight.

Her forehand has not looked like its usual self, and she is vulnerable on serve against the more powerful players. 

The 23-year-old was seen practising at Roland Garros as early as last Thursday, a week-and-a-half before the start of the main draw, to try and iron out her on-court issues.

The doubts surrounding Swiatek have opened the door for Aryna Sabalenka to take the role as the favourite as she aims for a maiden Roland Garros triumph.

After being denied a third straight Australian Open title courtesy of a final defeat to Madison Keys in January, the world number one has bounced back impressively, capturing the Miami Open and, more significantly, the Madrid Open on clay.

It was the Belarusian’s third Madrid success in five years, though it was followed by a surprise quarter-final exit in Rome at the hands of Zheng Qinwen. But betting on grand slams vs non-grand slams can showcase different characteristics needed from players but also things to consider for bettors too.

For instance, Sabalenka has never made the final at the Italian Open, nor the French Open. Both produce slower conditions than Madrid, where she has always been more comfortable, with the ball rapidly flying through the air at high altitude.

The contenders

A year ago, Mirra Andreeva ended Sabalenka’s run in the last eight, one round earlier than in 2023, when Karolina Muchova stunned her in the semi-finals. There are still question marks over the three-time Grand Slam champion’s ability to go all the way in Paris.

Gauff, meanwhile, has been to a French Open final before, only to be well beaten by Swiatek in 2023. Having been runner-up at both the Madrid Open and Italian Open over the past month, there is a sense that the American is closing in on a first big clay-court title.

The win over Swiatek in Madrid was the first time she had beaten the Polish player on clay, and her third consecutive straight-sets victory against her rival, who previously had her number. 

Gauff’s performances against top-eight opponents Andreeva and Zheng in Rome should further boost her confidence.

Another individual full of belief is Jasmine Paolini, whose odds for the title have come crashing in after she became the first Italian woman in 40 years to win the singles title in the country’s capital.

A beaten finalist at both the French Open and Wimbledon in 2024, Paolini has now proven to herself that she can get over the line on the big occasion. With a skillset well-suited to clay, she is now firmly in the mix as a potential Roland Garros winner.

FIRST’s top tip for the women’s French Open

Swiatek is out of sorts, and Sabalenka’s clay-court record outside of Madrid means I can’t get on board with her at the prices.

The bet that makes sense to me is Gauff. Back up to world number two, she can make the most of her seeding and go on another deep run.

Pick: Coco Gauff to win the women’s French Open - 8/1 (Matchbook)

Extra tip

Paolini is the form horse coming into Paris, and knows what it takes to get into the business end of a grand slam. Like Gauff, she could be helped by her new world ranking, as being the fourth seed puts her in an advantageous position in the draw.

Pick: Jasmine Paolini (each-way) to win the women’s French Open - 16/1 (Spreadex)

The value picks

Fancy learning some strategy to betting on the tennis underdog? Peyton Stearns was an unexpected semi-finalist in Rome and also reached the last 16 in Madrid. 

A win over compatriot Keys was a particular highlight, as well as her victory against Elina Svitolina, who lifted the title in Rouen on clay in April.

Diana Shnaider has also prepared well for her third crack at the French Open, getting to the fourth round in Madrid and the quarter-finals at the Italian Open. 

The 21-year-old is now at a career-high ranking of 11 and could be set for an eye-catching performance at a major tournament.

2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko commands respect in the market following her WTA 500 title in Stuttgart last month. 

In Rome, she fell to eventual champion Paolini in her second match but boasts a strong record at that event, with three quarter-final appearances plus a semi-final run since 2018. 

Her Paris record is poor since she won the title, but she is a player outside the top 16 that the seeds will want to avoid.

FIRST’s value pick for the women’s French Open

Shnaider has shown she can mix it with the elite in recent weeks, pushing both Swiatek and Paolini to deciding sets. 

The powerful left-hander has also proven ruthless against lower-ranked opposition, dishing out two double-bagels at the recent WTA 1000 tournaments. 

A grand slam breakthrough surely feels like a matter of when, not if.

Pick: Diana Shnaider (each-way) to win the women’s French Open - 66/1 (Ladbrokes)

Also worth considering

Both of Stearns’ WTA final appearances have come on the red dirt, including a title run in Morocco a year ago. Over the past month, she’s showcased her clay-court potential on a bigger stage, hinting at further upside. 

Replicating that form at Roland Garros is a tall order, but at the prices, she could be worth a small each-way interest.

Pick: Peyton Stearns (each-way) to win the women’s French Open - 150/1 (Ladbrokes)

Want more from Roland Garros? Check out our top tips and best bets for the ATP French Open tournament. Will Carlos Alcaraz claim yet another clay-court grand slam title?

Odds correct at the time of writing.