Ballon d’Or 2026 odds: Barcelona hero leading the market ahead of 2026 award

The dust has barely settled on Ousmane Dembele’s Ballon d’Or triumph last week, and we’re already looking ahead to the 2026 market. While some may have felt the Frenchman didn’t deserve the award, his role in PSG’s run to Champions League glory cannot be overstated.

Only seven players have won back-to-back Ballon d’Ors in history, notably record-holders Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Will Dembele follow in their footsteps? Or will there be a new name on the award in Paris next year?

We take a look at the early frontrunners to win football’s most illustrious individual gong in 2026.

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Lamine Yamal – Barcelona. 4/1

The early favourite to win the award, and it’s easy to see why. Lamine Yamal has been vital for both club and country over the last 15 months, playing key roles in Spain’s Euro 2024 success, and Barcelona’s title win in Hansi Flick’s first year in charge. The teenager won the Kopa Trophy as the best youngster in football and finished second to Dembele for the main award.

Barcelona are one of the favourites to win the Champions League, while Spain are one of those backed to go the distance in the 2026 World Cup. If Yamal is instrumental in success of either, or both, then it’s highly likely he’ll go one better at the Ballon d’Or next year. At the time of writing, he’s at 4/1 with BetVictor to knock Dembele off his perch in 12 months’ time.

Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid. 6/1

Kylian Mbappe’s debut season at Real Madrid didn’t quite go according to plan. Thirty-one goals were enough to land the Pichichi award, yet Los Blancos landed only the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup in a sub-par season for the Madrid powerhouse. Real Madrid will be hoping the appointment of Xabi Alonso can inspire the club to further success, both domestically and on the continent.

Mbappe, too, has made a fine start to the season, scoring eight goals in seven league matches and bagging a brace in their opening Champions League 2-1 win over Marseille in mid-September. If France are able to lift the World Cup in America next year, then the 26-year-old will be in the running for the Ballon d’Or. Until then, he’s available at a best price of 6/1 with William Hill to pip Yamal to top spot.

Ousmane Dembele – PSG. 14/1

After inspiring PSG to the Champions League last season, it’ll take some doing for Ousmane Dembele to better the exploits that culminated in a first Ballon d’Or win of his career. Indeed, the French side will not only need to dominate domestically, as they so often have done, but successfully defend their European crown.

It’s a packed field of favourites to win the Champions League this season, but both continental glory and a World Cup winners’ medal to boot would surely swing the voting back in Dembele’s favour. Even so, the 28-year-old is at a best price of 14/1 with BetVictor to become the eighth player in history to defend the Ballon d’Or.

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Mohamed Salah – Liverpool. 16/1

For a period, Mohamed Salah was the frontrunner for the 2025 Ballon d’Or award. However, while the Egyptian King was instrumental in Liverpool’s Premier League title win, that the Reds won just the sole domestic trophy in Arne Slot’s debut season weighed against Salah.

The winger has also made an underwhelming start to the season, even as Liverpool sit top of the league following Saturday’s 2-1 loss at Crystal Palace. Salah can lay down an early gauntlet provided he can fire Egypt to a record-setting eighth AFCON triumph in Morocco over the festive period. At the time of writing, the 33-year-old is a best price of 16/1 with William Hill to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

Harry Kane – Bayern Munich. 16/1

Harry Kane made history last week as he became the fastest player to score 100 goals for a team in Europe’s top five leagues, with his brace against Werder Bremen taking the striker to the milestone figure in just 104 Bayern Munich appearances. Kane finished the 2025 Ballon d’Or in 13th, which, given his exploits for his club, is a travesty.

The 32-year-old is expected to follow up his first major piece of silverware with further winners’ medals over the coming months, and he’d love nothing more than to bring football home next year. As England skipper, a potential World Cup triumph next summer would see odds of 16/1 with William Hill shorten drastically.

Ballon d’Or 2026 odds

Odds correct at the time of publish.