Ballon d’Or 2026 odds: Mbappe, Yamal, Kane and Haaland lead the favourites

It’s been a little over a month since Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 Ballon d’Or. And yet we’re already looking ahead to the 2026 award. Lamine Yamal finished second in the 2025 edition. Will he go one better next year? The Barcelona teenager has certainly started the season well enough to deserve consideration.

However, competition is rife as players strive to land football’s most prestigious individual accolade. With that, we take a look at the early frontrunners to win football’s most illustrious gong for individual players in 2026.

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Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid

How the tables have turned. Having been second in the running a month ago, Kylian Mbappe is now the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or. 

Indeed, the Frenchman has shortened from 6/1 with William Hill to 3/1 with BetVictor after a stunning start to the season.

While the 26-year-old was unable to help Real Madrid to victory at Liverpool on Tuesday night, Mbappe is thriving for both club and country. 

He’s scored at least six more goals (13) than any other player in La Liga this season, and has bagged five times in his opening four Champions League outings. Keep up this form and he’ll be a shoo-in for the award.

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Lamine Yamal – Barcelona

Previously the frontrunner for the award, injuries and a relative downturn in form has seen Lamine Yamal drop down the pecking order in the race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The 2025 runner up is still showing his best for his club when available, but a disappointing Clasico showing has worked against the teenager.

Even so, Yamal started the season superbly. If he can rediscover that form, then he’ll close the gap on Mbappe in no time. 

That said, Mbappe’s stunning showings means the Barcelona star may struggle to re-establish himself as favourite for the gong in the foreseeable future. 

Having been 4/1 last month, the 18-year-old’s price has shortened to 100/30 with QuinnBet but it’s still second in the markets.

Harry Kane – Bayern Munich

One of the biggest movers in the Ballon d’Or 2026 market, Harry Kane’s best price has more than halved from 16/1 to 7/1 with QuinnBet to land the award.

Kane is still a fair way off Mbappe and Yamal but his flying form for German giants Bayern means he deserves to be in the conversation.

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The 32-year-old has failed to net in back-to-back appearances for Bayern, which is almost unheard of for a player of his calibre. However, the England skipper is expected to showcase his best form again before long. 

If he can add to his Bundesliga winners’ medal with further silverware this season, that his price will only shorten further.

Erling Haaland – Manchester City

Erling Haaland is the favourite for the PFA Player of the Year award. Could he follow that up next year with the Ballon d’Or? The Norwegian goal machine has been absolutely sensational for Manchester City so far this season.

Haaland leads the race for the Premier League Golden Boot with 13 league goals to his name.

In addition, Haaland is spearheading Norway’s push for a place at the 2026 World Cup as they look to secure a spot at football’s showpiece event for the first time since 1998. 

The 25-year-old was at 16/1 to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or last month, but has since gone into 8/1 with bet365 to take home the accolade. 

Impress in the US next summer, and there’s a good chance he could rival the current favourites.

Ousmane Dembele – PSG

Few, if any, defend the Ballon d’Or crown. Ousmane Dembele claimed the award earlier this year but he’s struggling to showcase his Ballon d’Or winning form. Much of that is down to injury. 

Dembele has regularly struggled for fitness in recent years, and this season is no exception.

The Frenchman was forced off with a thigh issue in Tuesday’s 2-1 loss to Bayern Munich shortly after seeing a goal ruled out following VAR intervention. 

It followed a moment of worry for the Parisian side after his cameo against Nice at the weekend, where he could be seen pointing to his hamstring and telling Achraf Hakimi: “It hurts, it hurts so bad.” 

Dembele, though, remains at 14/1 with BetVictor to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, but he’s starting to drop behind the chasing pack.

Michael Olise – Bayern Munich

One of those who’ll hope to gain ground on Dembele is compatriot Michael Olise. 

The Bayern winger has been a consistent force for the Bavarian bruisers since moving to Germany from Crystal Palace in 2024.

Kane is the star man for Bayern Munich but Olise has proven a revelation at the Allianz Arena. Crucially, too, is that he’s showcasing his best form for France. 

While he remains at 20/1 with BetVictor to land the 2026 Ballon d’Or, that price can be expected to shorten as Olise and Bayern continue to shine.

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Odds correct at the time of publish.