Qarabağ FK vs Chelsea tips and predictions: The Blues face a dangerous trip against a fearless home side

Qarabağ FK state of play

Qarabağ FK made a flying start to their Champions League return after seven long years away from the main stage. 

They breezed through qualifying, winning five of six, before heading to Lisbon and pulling off a 3-2 comeback that caught all top Champions League bookmakers off guard. The Azeris were 11/1 before kickoff and two down inside sixteen minutes, which had Ladbrokes paying out early on Benfica.

Then Leandro Andrade, Camilo Durán and Oleksiy Kashchuk flipped the script entirely. Qarabağ followed it up with a 2-0 win at home to Copenhagen, making them the only club outside Europe’s top five leagues to open the Champions League phase with two victories.

That said, the 3-1 loss away to Athletic Club told a different story. They went ahead inside forty-eight seconds, but then lost their grip and let Bilbao take charge and punish them. After the match, head coach Gurban Gurbanov admitted his players aren’t used to facing that kind of pressure for a full ninety in their own league.

Domestically, Qarabağ defend their crown as champions of Azerbaijan. They’re second in the table with a game in hand, thirteen scored and only three conceded from eight matches. Their setup leans on patient possession and combination play, using the flanks as launch pads for quick breaks. The left side, where Borges, Zoubir, and Andrade rotate fluidly, drives most of their attacks.

Ahead of a bumper week of Champions League action for English teams, which includes Arsenal taking on SK Slavia Prague, now let's look at Chelsea's state of play.

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Chelsea state of play

Chelsea look the stronger side by every measure. Coral price the win at 2/5, with even money on the -1 handicap against Qarabağ. Still, they come into the fixture in a strange spell. Maresca has the side circulating the ball for long spells, averaging around 64% possession across league, cup and Europe.

The end product, though, still feels like it’s got another gear. You could say they’re missing a natural finisher. Seventeen goals have come from ten different players in the Premier League so far this season.

In midfield, Chelsea look lively with Enzo Fernández and Caicedo trying to control the rhythm. Palmer’s injury against United back in September left a clear gap between the lines. They miss that natural connector that links play to the front. Defensively, the same old cracks show under pressure.

Sunderland’s winner came from a simple long ball followed by a loose clearance, something Maresca labelled as “an easy situation to defend.” The Blues manager wants them pressing high and snapping into a compact 4-4-2 out of possession to block central routes. That setup will face a real test against Qarabağ, who thrive when they get space on the flanks.

For a trip like Wednesday’s, Chelsea will look to use their control and quality in midfield to dictate play, but the danger’s there. They’ll be coming off a tough London derby at Spurs, one that the Blues can’t afford to ease off. It’s a chance to draw level on points and keep themselves in the frame to shorten those 7/4 odds from William Hill on a top-four finish by season’s end.

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Key talking point: Liam Delap’s return gives Chelsea a new focal point up front

Speaking before the Carabao Cup tie with Wolves, Enzo Maresca said that Liam Delap is “available” after two months out with a hamstring problem. Chelsea have lacked a focal point in attack during that spell, and his return brings a different option when pressing and breaking forward. 

The sensible move would be to ease the striker back in. A few minutes against Wolves, then a short outing at Spurs, could pave the way for around an hour in Baku. The question is whether Maresca throws him straight in or keeps that energy in reserve for the later stages.

FIRST.com’s top tip - Qarabağ FK vs Chelsea

Pick: Qarabağ FK Over 0.5 Goals – 3/5 – (Coral)

Qarabağ have found the net in all nine of their Champions League games this season, qualifiers included, with goals away at both Benfica and Bilbao. They average 12.33 shots a match and post an expected-goals figure of 1.55. Gurban Gurbanov’s team are not the type to park the bus. They look to link through midfield and use the wide areas to pull sides apart.

Chelsea under Maresca still show weakness in those same transitions, conceding 1.33 per game in Europe and 1.22 in the Premier League. Their high defensive line and rotation-heavy schedule might easily leave gaps that a confident Qarabağ can exploit.

Pick: Draw – 4/1 – (Ladbrokes)

Looking at the UK bookies, Chelsea are clear favourites at 2/5, with Qarabağ out at 6/1. Even so, the Azeri side have proved they can compete at this level even when unfavoured. They’ll be well up for it, especially with their crowd behind them.

Chelsea are expected to rotate or at least manage minutes after the trip to Spurs four days earlier. Qarabağ’s build-up looks far gentler with a home match against mid-table Imisli FK.

Team news

Qarabağ look close to full strength after getting Rustam Akhundzade and Marko Janković back a few matches ago. Unless something flares up in training or that Imisli FK game, Gurbanov should have a full squad to pick from. 

For Chelsea, the headline could be Liam Delap if he gets some minutes. Benoît Badiashile, Cole Palmer, Dario Essugo and Levi Colwill remain out as they work through their respective injuries.

Qarabağ FK vs Chelsea expected line-ups

Qarabağ FK: Kochalski; Cafarquliyev, Medina, Mustafazade, Silva; Janković, Bicalho; Andrade, Borges, Zoubir; Duran. (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Sánchez; James, Acheampong, Fofana, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernández; Estêvão, Garnacho, Neto; Delap. (4-2-3-1)

Form guide 

Qarabağ FK: DLWWWWWWDW

Chelsea: LWWWWLWLLD

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Odds and data correct at the time of writing.