BMW Championship betting tips: Sam Burns to up the ante at Caves Valley

BMW Championship: Things to consider

The FedEx Cup Playoffs moves onto Caves Valley Golf Club for the BMW Championship. The top 70 players in the rankings have now been trimmed to 50 after the FedEx St. Jude Championship where Justin Rose emerged victorious over JJ Spaun (30/1 Betfred) in extra time. 

The FedEx Cup points tally for the winner of the BMW Championship is again quadrupled to 2,000 points. The purse for the BMW Championship is $20m (£15m) with $3.6m (£2.7m) going to the man who lifts the trophy.

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Some big names missed the cut that ensued after TPC Southwind including Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark. The top 30 in the standings will progress to Eastlake and the Tour Championship for a chance at the $10m (£7.46m) top prize.

Amongst those on the outside and looking to force their way to the final stop include Xander Schauffele (16/1 Ladbrokes), Matt Fitzpatrick and Jason Day, the first of whom just booked his spot on the US Ryder Cup team for Bethpage Black.

BMW Championship: Top of the market 

The market leaders

At the risk of repeating myself, world number one and FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler heads the market at 12/5 with Betway. 

It was another near miss for Scheffler last week finishing one shot shy of the playoff alongside Tommy Fleetwood (20/1 Betfred). Scheffler seems to be there or thereabouts every week now. 

Rory McIlroy (13/2 Coral) returns to the starting lineup, and this course suits the Irishman down to the ground. He was fourth here in 2021 shooting rounds of 64,65 and 67 in the process.

Xander Schauffele at a general 16/1 is third in the BMW Championship odds and although he’s secured his Ryder Cup spot, he still has a lot to do to make the top 30 and the Tour championship. 

Justin Rose (40/1 Spreadex) and Tommy Fleetwood have also sealed their Ryder Cup spots for Team Europe.

Caves Valley is a beast of a course in terms of length at over 7,600 yards, playing to a par of just 70. In saying that, scoring wise we should see low numbers. I remember the track specifically for what Bryson did to it during his power driving obsession.

The contenders

DeChambeau carded a total of 27-under par alongside Patrick Cantlay (25/1 Betfred) but ultimately lost out to his compatriot in a playoff. 

It was one of the best displays of golf and head to heads I’ve witnessed. The playoff took six holes to separate the duo. 

Caves Valley is a woodland course with very generous landing areas and brute force wins the race. You only have to look at the leaderboard which also contained names like Burns, McIlroy and Dustin Johnson - all the game’s power hitters.

That brings me to Ludvig Aberg who is one of the game’s longest and best drivers of the golf ball and he’s returning to form just at the right time. The Swede ranks 10th in ‘strokes gained off the tee’ and 22nd in ‘driving distance’. He is also third in approaches and last year Aberg was fourth in ‘total driving’. 

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In short, Aberg is a driving machine and along with his high trajectory iron play, this gives him a maximum course fit rating for Caves Valley Golf Club.

The other stat to get preoccupied with for the BMW Championship is ‘par breakers’, and Cameron Young is firing on all cylinders right now. He closed out the FedEx St. Jude with a round of 64 for a fifth-place finish, and up to 12th in the FedEx standings. 

This was his first outing since capturing his maiden PGA Tour Victory at the Wyndham where he opened with rounds of 63-62. 

Young ranks 25th in ‘par breakers’ and 23rd in ‘driving distance’. It looks like the putter is the difference for Young this year – the American ranks seventh in ‘strokes gained putting’ and fifth in ‘birdie or better conversion rate’.

Serious threats 

In recent weeks Sam Burns has hit rounds of 64 and 65 and he closed out at TPC Southwind with a 66 and 68 over the weekend.

He’s circling back into form after a playoff defeat to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open a couple of months back. In that time Burns finished in the top ten at the US Open. 

The big hitter demonstrated his liking for Caves Valley with an eighth-place finish here in 2021 where he shared the first-round lead, firing an opening 64. 

Burns also hit a 65 in the third round, and Burns sits 24th in the ‘par breaker’ stats. The 29-year-old is also 24th in the FedEx Cup standings so he’s not quite safe yet.

FIRST’s top tip for the BMW Championship

Ludvig Aberg looks primed to take on the course in question. Back the Swede to win the golf tournament at 18/1 each way (six places) with Ladbrokes.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg to win the BMW Championship - 18/1 e/w (six places) Ladbrokes

Extra tips

Sam Burns showed he has a strong course fit for Caves Valley in the 2021 BMW Championship. Back Burns to win the tournament at 35/1 (four places) each way with Betfred.

Cameron Young is riding a concoction of confidence and form with the flat stick. Back the American at 22/1 (five places) each way with Betway.

Pick: Sam Burns to win the BMW Championship - 35/1 e/w (four places) Betfred

Pick: Cameron Young to win the BMW Championship - 22/1 e/w (five places) Betway

BMW Championship: Value bets 

Continuing the theme of players ranked highly in the ‘driving distance’ and ‘strokes gained off the tee’ stats, which will reveal itself to be a priority in terms of profiling the leaders down the stretch this week, I’m going to play it a little differently here and point out four big-priced targets that fall under the “bombers” category.

First up is Chris Gotterup who has moved up levels this year. In 2024 he made his breakthrough with victory at the alternate event Myrtle Beach Classic and recently he’s gone on to take down the Genesis Scottish Open and finish third in the Open Championship. 

That was preceded by three top 30s in a row and backed up with a top 10 finish at the 3M Open. Gotterup ranks 18th in ‘par breakers’, seventh in ‘strokes gained off the tee’ and 10th in ‘driving distance’.

Each way golf betting can be a very lucrative ploy and Another in a similar vein is Kurt Kitayama. He ranks third in ‘par breakers’ and is coming off a recent win at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities which is another big hitter’s paradise. 

That was Kitayama’s second PGA Tour win, adding to two wins on the DP World Tour. Kitayama sits 11th in ‘strokes gained off the tee’ and eighth in ‘driving distance’.

Also on the radar are two more sloggers: Taylor Pendrith and Ryan Fox. Pendrith picked up his maiden PGA Tour win at the Byron Nelson last year and has kicked on since then, recording a top five at the US PGA Championship in recent months. Fox has won on the PGA Tour twice this season.

The Canadian and the New Zealander are two of the biggest hitters in the game. Fox ranked 20th in driving distance in 2024 while he is seventh in putting average in 2025. The Kiwi is known for going low.

Pendrith sits a lofty eighth in ‘strokes gained off the tee’ this year and he’s 27th in ‘total driving’. The Canadian ranks 25th in ‘total birdies’.

FIRST’s top value tips for the BMW Championship

Chris Gotterup is in contention for most improved golfer of the year. Back him at 35/1 (six places) each way with Coral.

There also looks to be value in Kurt Kitayama, Taylor Pendrith and Ryan Fox who all fit the big hitting birdie maker profile for Caves Valley Golf Club.

Pick: Kurt Kitayama at 45/1 each way - Ladbrokes

Pick: Taylor Pendrith to win the BMW Championship at 66/1 (five places) - Spreadex

Pick: Ryan Fox at 125/1 (six places) each way - Coral

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Odds correct at the time of writing.