England Women vs Italy Women tips and predictions: Path to the final now clear for the Lionesses

England state of play

Having ended the groups on a serious high by battering both the Netherlands and the Welsh, the Lionesses were expected to come out with a spring in their step against Sweden. 

Instead, their opponents flew out of the traps, surging into a two-goal lead, with Sarina Wiegman’s women looking a little sluggish and out of ideas. 

Love football? Find the best football betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

Fortunately, thanks in no small part to the intensity and creativity of second-half substitute Chloe Kelly, the English turned it around in the second half, through goals from Lucy Bronze and youngster Michelle Agyemang, who like Kelly, made a huge difference from the bench. 

A tense set of penalties followed, with the Lionesses eventually prevailing in less than convincing fashion. 

They’re through, and that’s all that matters, but they will need to shift through the gears if they’re to reach the final, against either Spain or Germany, for the second time on the bounce. Fortunately, we and crucially the team know how to do it. 

Italy state of play 

Seen as dark horses by some, the Italians have exceeded expectations by reaching the final four. 

Let’s face it, they certainly weren’t among the first four in the outright betting, so the fact that they’ve reached the semi finals is a little bit of a shock. 

Read: How to make cash out betting work for you

Can they continue to upset the odds and reach Sunday’s final? I doubt it. 

Take nothing away from the team coached by Andrea Soncin, who delivered a disciplined performance against Norway, while they pose a threat, especially on the break and from wide areas, with wily forward Cristiana Girelli looking as deadly as ever, especially from crosses. 

Key talking point: Caruso can cause problems 

As the early market suggests, this is a game that the Lionesses should win. They’ve got more overall quality than their opponents, while as a team they’ve tasted far more success and should know how to get over the line. 

However, we shouldn’t expect their evening to be completely straightforward. 

Read: How can xG be used to identify good bets?

The Italians have some very capable players, especially in the final third. Both Sofia Cantore and Cristian Girelli can hurt teams, but Arianna Caruso may just be the player to focus on. 

An all-rounder, Caruso has been the one to knit together many of Italy’s attacks. Showing real confidence with the ball at her feet, driving forward, playing clever passes, while she’s also shown a clear hunger to go for goal. The English will need to keep tabs on the Bayern player, for sure. 

FIRST’s top tip for England vs Italy

Arianna Caruso over 0.5 shots on target - 6/4 (Coral)

Quite simply, odds of 6/4 look generous. Caruso has taken more shots than any other Italian player at this tournament, shooting both from range and as someone who runs in behind. 

She’s averaging 3.00 shots per 90, as well as 0.75 shots on target per 90. Take the 6/4. 

Extra tips 

Georgia Stanway to score - 22/5 (BetMGM)

I also think that Georgia Stanway is available at slightly lenient odds to score. We’ve seen her get forward plenty, scoring in two of England’s four matches in Switzerland. 

She’s more than capable of getting on the end of things, while she’s adept at shooting from range too. Oh, and she’s the penalty taker. 

Averaging 1.94 shots per 90 at this tournament, as well as averaging 0.39 xG per 90 minutes, Stanway is worth betting on to hit the net. 

Team news 

Sarino Wiegman certainly isn’t expected to make numerous changes ahead of this semi-final, though she could tinker with things slightly. 

Chloe Kelly played superbly from the bench against Sweden, so she could start, especially as Lauren James played 120 minutes and may be in need of a rest. 

The Italians aren’t expected to change much either, especially after delivering what was a strong performance against the Norwegians last time out. The same starting XI will most likely be named by Andrea Soncin. 

England Women vs Italy Women predicted line-ups

England Women: Hampton; Greenwood, Carter, Williamson, Bronze; Toone, Walsh, Stanway; Hemp, Kelly; Russo. 

Italy Women: Giuliani; Linari, Salvai, Di Guglielmo; Oliviero, Caruso, Giugliano, Severini, Bonansea; Cantore, Girelli. 

Form guide

England Women: WWLWLWLWWD

Italy Women: WLLWDWWDLW

FIRST's recommended football betting sites for England vs Italy

FIRST's expert team have put their heads together to come up with three of the best football bookmakers to make your play on the Women's Euro 2025 semi finals this week.

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.