Man City vs Leverkusen tips and predictions: Citizens to overpower their visitors?

Man City state of play 

It’s been fairly straightforward stuff from Man City over the first half of the UCL league phase campaign. The Citizens have racked up three wins and a draw, scoring ten and conceding only three, which has left them sitting in fourth place, ahead of teams such as PSG, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Barcelona. 

Pep Guardiola’s men, having disappointingly gone out in the knockout phase play-offs last season, will have wanted to shift through the gears this time around, and they’ve so far done that - so much so that it already looks like they’ll be heading straight into the Round of 16 as one of the top eight. 

In fact, the top Champions League betting sites now have City at 7/1 to lift the trophy in May.

On home soil in recent weeks, the 2022/23 Champions League winners have been in imperious form, beating all comers, scoring lots of goals in the process. Such form bodes well ahead of a game against a Leverkusen side that has so far looked a little short of ideas at this level. 

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Leverkusen state of play 

It’s been a mixed bag from the Germans, who endured an interesting start to the campaign, sacking newly appointed gaffer Erik ten Hag after just two games, before appointing Kasper Hjulmand, who is certainly getting a good tune out of the Leverkusen boys domestically, but on the continent, it hasn’t been plain sailing. 

We’re half way through the League Phase campaign and Hjulmand's men find themselves sitting in 21st position, thanks to one win, two draws and a loss. Of course, that means that they are currently on course to enter the play-offs, but their position is a tenuous one. 

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We did recently see the visitors pick up a win in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon, where they edged out Benfica by a goal to nil, but they’ll absolutely need to pull out more to get a positive result at the Etihad. Can they do that? I’m not convinced.

And neither are the bookies. The best football betting sites such as William Hill have Leverkusen at 150/1 to go all the way in the tournament.  

Key talking point: Leverkusen must be wary of shots from range should they sit deep 

If the visitors go to the Etihad and try to open up, they’ll almost certainly get picked apart, much as Liverpool, Dortmund and Bournemouth did in recent weeks. 

At the same time, though, Hjulmand’s men must be wary of dropping too deep, allowing the Citizens to work the ball into optimum shooting positions just outside the box.

We know that the likes of Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders are all a threat from range. So the visitors really do have their work cut out trying to find the balance between defending first and not falling too deep. Best of luck with that. 

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FIRST.com’s top tip - Manchester City vs Leverkusen

Pick: Tijjani Reijnders to score - 3/1 - (10bet)

At odds of 3/1, I’m going to side with Tijjani Reijnders to find the net for the hosts. Far from the most frequent scorer, Reijnders has popped up with a few goals for City already this season. While he recently boosted his offensive confidence by scoring for the Netherlands. 

Moreover, we’re talking about the player who has taken the second-most shots for City in the Champions League this season. Reijnders currently averages 4.08 shots per UCL game, while he should have the optimum set-up here against a deep-lying opponent. 

FACT: Only Erling Haaland has taken more shots than Tijjani Reijnders for Man City in the Champions League this season.

Pick: Man City to win & both teams to score - 6/4 - (betway)

As an additional play, it’s worth betting on the hosts to win without keeping a clean sheet. The visitors can pack a punch on the break, while it’s not as if Guardiola’s men have kept many clean sheets of late, conceding at least once in three of their last four wins, as well as in three of their last five home wins. 

Team news 

The hosts should be at full strength for this fixture, meaning that Pep Guardiola can select his preferred XI. The only absence of any note for the Citizens is Mateo Kovacic, who has been out for a while. 

Visiting boss Kasper Hjulmand does have a few injuries to contend with. Equi Fernandez remains out, as does Exequiel Palacios. There are also doubts over the readiness of both Lucas Vazquez and Nathan Tella. 

Man City vs Leverkusen expected line-ups

Man City: Donnarumma; O’Reilly, Gvardiol, Dias, Nunes; Silva, Nico, Foden; Doku, Cherki; Haaland (4-3-2-1)

Leverkusen: Flekken; Quansah, Bade, Tapsoba; Tillman, Maza, Garcia, Grimaldo; Poku, Hofmann; Schick (3-4-2-1)

Form guide

Man City: DWWWLWWWWL

Leverkusen: DWWLWDLWWW