Newcastle v Athletic Club tips and predictions: Guimarães and Woltemade tipped to shine at St James’ Park

Newcastle state of play

Newcastle have won five of their last six in all competitions and head into the weekend against West Ham before hosting Athletic Bilbao. The top UK Champions League bookies have Eddie Howe’s men odds-on to take all three points at St James’ Park. Their last outing saw them dump Tottenham out of the Carabao Cup in the last sixteen, with Fabian Schär and Nick Woltemade both heading home.

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Newcastle’s European campaign has looked far stronger than the league table shows. They brushed aside Benfica and Union Saint-Gilloise, scoring seven without conceding in either match. The only slip came against last season’s La Liga winners Barcelona, a narrow 2-1 defeat after missing two big first-half chances.

Domestically, it’s steady rather than spectacular. They hover around mid-table, though that late 2-1 win at Fulham through Bruno Guimarães gave Eddie Howe something to hold onto. He called it a morale boost, the kind of win that can turn a corner. The trip to London now offers a chance to build on that and the Carabao Cup momentum, while West Ham see it as vital to edge away from the Premier League relegation fight.

💡 Player to Watch: Bruno Guimarães has been running the show in Newcastle’s midfield with an 85.8% pass accuracy and growing influence on the ball. He scored two of their five Premier League goals in October, earning himself a Player of the Month nod. Betfred have him 13/2 to score anytime.

Athletic Club state of play

Athletic Club opened their domestic campaign with three straight league wins, but have managed only one victory from the seven that followed. They’ve already lost four and drawn a blank in five of their ten matches. Before they face Newcastle, attention in Spain turns to the Basque Derby against long-time rivals Real Sociedad. Most UK football betting sites price it near level, with the home side 37/20 and Sociedad 15/8, setting up what looks like a tight contest.

💡 FUN FACT: Since 1912, Athletic Club have followed an unwritten rule of only signing players born or raised in the Basque Country.

On the pitch, stats show Athletic can keep the ball (52% avg. possession in La Liga) but struggle to turn it into anything meaningful. The issue lies further upfield. For all that control, only about 7% of their efforts hit the mark, which is miles off for a side chasing Europe and explains why they’ve failed to score in half their league games. The lack of a real finisher doesn’t help either. Eight different players have found the net, but none have managed more than one goal.

Coming off a convincing European win over Qarabağ, Ernesto Valverde will view the Tyneside tie as a chance to steady the narrative in front of roughly 3,000 travelling fans. The weekend Basque derby is bound to weigh on both morale and energy levels, all the more with Laporte and Lekue added to the injury list.

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Key talking point: Woltemade’s ‘idiot’ move now paying off on the pitch

No Isak, no problem. Nick Woltemade’s filled the void nicely and already outperformed what the Swede managed in his own first eleven games for the club.

The £65 million move from VfB Stuttgart raised eyebrows, with Bayern Munich calling it an “idiot” deal at the time. A few months on, the 23-year-old answered that talk with goals - four in six Premier League matches and one each in the Champions League and League Cup.

It feels like he’s earned a place on a few betting slips in the Premier League prop markets by now. For the midweek clash with Athletic Bilbao, most UK bookies have him favourite to score first at 19/5 and anytime at 11/10.

FIRST.com’s top tip - Newcastle v Athletic Club

Pick: Newcastle to Win to Nil – 31/20 – (10bet)

Newcastle have made a clear statement about how tight they can be at the back. Five clean sheets from seven, including shutouts against Benfica and Union Saint-Gilloise, tell the story. Nick Pope’s in fine form and now ranks among the top Premier League keepers with a save rate above 76.5%. 

At St James’ Park, the Magpies have scored in every outing. Surely, both Guimarães and Woltemade will be looking to keep that run going. 

Bilbao arrive light up front with Iñaki Williams ruled out, and the absence of Aymeric Laporte won’t help their balance either, so it could turn into a long night for them.

Pick: Half-Time 1X2: Newcastle – 11/10 – (Coral)

Newcastle have gone in ahead at half-time in 60% of their home games across league and Europe, conceding only twice. They’ve also scored nine times at St James’ Park. 

Bilbao’s away record is the complete opposite - four draws, one defeat, and only three goals before the break. 

Newcastle at home, with that crowd and tempo, tend to set the tone early, and my money's on that trend to carry on here.

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Team news

Newcastle’s injury list is easing slightly. Sven Botman avoided a concussion after his head knock against Fulham and is expected to return soon after sitting out the Spurs game. Valentino Livramento continues recovery from a knee issue (expected back vs. Man City), while Lewis Hall, Yoane Wissa and Harrison Ashby remain sidelined longer term as they work back toward full conditioning.

The two big absences for Athletic are Aymeric Laporte and Iñaki Williams. The skipper’s sidelined by an ankle sprain and unlikely to feature before mid-November. Williams has a muscle problem and should return later in the month. They’re joined on the sidelines by Iñigo Lekue, Unai Egiluz, and young midfielder Beñat Prados.

Newcastle v Athletic Club expected line-ups

Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Bruno Guimarães, Miley, Ramsey; Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon (4-3-3).

Athletic Club: Simón; Gorosabel, Vivian, Paredes, Lekue; Jauregizar, Inigo; Navarro, Sancet, Sannadi; Williams (4-2-3-1).

Form guide 

Newcastle: WWWLWWLWDL

Athletic Club: LWDWLLDLLL

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Odds and data correct at the time of writing.