CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting tips: Can Scheffler add to his stock at TPC Craig Ranch?

CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Things to consider 

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson returns to McKinney, Texas and TPC Craig Ranch which has been the new home of the Byron Nelson tournament for the last handful of years. Taylor Pendrith (33/1 BetMGM) defends after winning last year on a score of 23-under par. 

We are in the midst of a mini-hiatus before the golf season kicks back into full swing with the next ‘signature event’ (Truist Championship) followed by the second major of the year, the PGA Championship on 15 May. 

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The Zurich Classic was a team event structure and a fun PGA Tour stop in Louisiana. In saying that the winning team of Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin (45/1 BetMGM) banked over £1m plus 400 FedEx Cup points each, along with a number of exemptions into big events. 

Over on the DP World Tour, it was Marco Penge who came out on top in the Hainan Classic. 

This week the PGA Tour pros are playing for a Byron Nelson purse worth almost $10m (£7.5m), with 500 FedEx Cup points going to the winner.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Top of the market  

Scottie Scheffler (11/4 Betway) does not like to miss any Texas events. The world number one has lived in Texas since he was five years old and given he hasn’t won in 2025, he has extra incentive to make an appearance in front of his home fans. 

Another Texan that would love to get back into the winners circle this week is Jordan Spieth (16/1 Spreadex) and maybe he will be inspired by good friend Justin Thomas who ended a three-year winning drought two weeks ago.

Sungjae Im is a standout for me in tier one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting odds. Im has returned to top form after a spell in the golfing doldrums. 

A top five finish at the Masters was followed by a t11 at Harbour Town. He also owns top five finishes this season at the Farmers Insurance Open and the season-opening Sentry. 

Im ranks 22nd in ‘strokes gained off the tee’, 10th in ‘total birdies’ and fourth in ‘par 5 performance’.

TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71, playing over 7,500 yards. The track boasts Zoysiagrass fairways and bentgrass greens and incorporates creek and water trouble throughout. Bermuda rough lines wide landing areas and the track lends itself to big hitting birdie makers.

It’s key to identify the nuances of the course layout and where the players could find the edge around the track - whether it suits long drivers off the tee or the short game specialists.

With birdies being the brief on a course that yields low numbers, I’m drawn to the Hojgaard twins who recorded a solo second at the Zurich Classic team event last week. 

Read: Four key factors and strategies to first round leader betting 

Rasmus is particularly intriguing, and he posted a top 35 in Houston followed by a t32 at the Masters prior to the Zurich Classic.

He trumps his brother in the driving distance ranks in 2025, currently sitting ninth in this metric. Those who know Rasmus Hojgaard from the DP World Tour know he makes a lot of par breakers, and he backs that up, ranking 35th in ‘birdie or better conversion %’. 

Nicolai is ranked 24th in approach shots and 19th in ‘par 5 birdie or better’ leaders. Most of his wins have come on this type of layout.

Jake Knapp is next up, and he nearly got his second PGA Tour win alongside Frankie Capan at the Zurich Classic. 

Knapp’s pairing spent a large chunk of the back nine on Sunday level with the leaders until Capan got a little nervy towards the end. 

His form is solid with five top thirties in his last seven singles starts. The American was eighth here at the Byron Nelson on debut last year. 

Knapp is 34th in ‘driving distance’ and third in ‘par 5 performance’ in 2025. He ranks 12th in ‘birdie average’ and third in ‘total birdies’.

FIRST’s top tip for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 

Sungjae Im is rounding into top form ahead of the season’s second major. Back him each way (six places) at 25/1 with Spreadex.

Extra tips 

Jake Knapp ticks a lot of the boxes we are looking for at TPC Craig Ranch. Back Knapp each way (six places) at 50/1 with Betway.

Rasmus and Nicolai Hojgaard also look good value for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Back Rasmus (six places) each way at 50/1 with BetMGM. 

Nicolai is available each way (six places) at 66/1 with Spreadex. They are also available at (17/2) and (10/1) respectively to be ‘top European’.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Value bets 

The Byron Nelson tournament record vs par at TPC Craig Ranch is 261, shot by Jason Day in 2023 and Taylor Pendrith in the 2024 edition. 

Sebastian Munoz and Sul Yeung Noh hold the 18 hole scoring record at TPC Craig Ranch with a pair of 60s. Let’s look for a few birdie machines at big prices:

Davis Riley is a man who knows TPC Craig Ranch more than most, and has spent years living in close proximity to the course with flat-mate Will Zalatoris. 

Riley is simmering in terms of current form and course history in professional events. He has three top thirty finishes and a scoring average under 68 from four appearances at the Byron Nelson here. 

He also owns three recent top 25 finishes including two top sevens. The American ranks ninth in ‘par 5 birdie or better leaders’ and 22nd in ‘putting average’. He excels from tee to green when his game is in good shape.

Michael Thorbjornsen has been close to that maiden PGA Tour win on his last two starts. He bogeyed his final hole in the Corales Puntacana Championship to miss out on a playoff while a water ball from his partner at the 71st last week at the Zurich Classic put paid to his and Karl Vilip’s chances. Thorbjornsen is a big hitter ranking fourth in ‘driving distance’ and he sits 44th in ‘birdie average’.

Christo Lamprecht punched his CJ Cup tournament ticket via the Byron Nelson Collegiate Golf Award winner route. He and Aldrich Potgieter stand out in some submarkets due to their prodigious power off the tee. 

Potgieter leads the ‘driving distance’ stats on the PGA Tour and just lost out in a playoff at a similar set up to TPC Craig Ranch at VidantaWorld in Mexico a couple of months back. 

Lamprecht has had three top five finishes from 19 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour and he leads the ‘driving distance’ stats on the KFT. 

FIRST’s top value tips for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 

Davis Riley will draw on the local support this week and he knows the track inside out. Back Riley each way (ten places) at 66/1 with Coral or Ladbrokes.

Michael Thorbjornsen has been close to the win on his last two starts. Can it be third time lucky at 60/1 (ten places) each way with Coral and Ladbrokes?

Christo Lamprecht and Aldrich Potgieter are two young power houses that make par breakers in bunches. We’ve seen low rounds here before. Back Lamprecht first round leader each way (six places) at 150/1 with BetMGM or 11/2 for a top 20 finish.

Back Potgieter first round leader at 125/1 (six places) each way with BetMGM or for a top 20 finish at 9/2.

Odds correct at the time of writing.