The Open Championship betting tips: Tommy Fleetwood to go one better at Royal Portrush?

The Open Championship: Things to consider 

It's the last major of the year and the phrase "save the best till last" springs to mind as the Open Championship hits Royal Portrush for the first time in six years. The Dunluce links in Northern Ireland is regarded as one of the finest courses in the world.

Last time we were here it was a delight for the home fans as Shane Lowry 30/1 (BetMGM) flew away from playing partner Tommy Fleetwood (22/1 Spreadex) and the field on the final day.

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Last week we saw another home favourite Rory McIlroy right back in top form at the Scottish Open with but an impressive performance by Chris Gotterup (85/1 Spreadex) couldn’t be toppled. 

Taking down the 'opposite event’ ISCO championship was the relatively unknown William Mouw, tying the course record 61 to come from nowhere on the final day, pipping 200/1 shot Paul Peterson. 

READ: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy favourites for Open Championship

Gotterup, Nicolai Hojgaard (125/1 Betway) and Matti Schmid (175/1 Ladbrokes) sewed up the last three Open Championship spots available at Royal Portrush, in Scotland.

The prize pool at the 2024 Open Championship was £12.6m with winner Xander Schauffele taking home a cool £2.3m for his troubles. 10,000 Race to Dubai points are on offer this week.

The Open Championship: Who could win the final major of 2025?

Top of the market

For me Scottie Scheffler (11/2 Spreadex) and Rory McIlroy (7/1 Spreadex) are taking up too much percentage of the Open Championship odds book. 

Scheffler is not a links specialist while McIlroy missed the cut here amidst the pressure of his own fans in 2019. McIlroy tied for second at the Scottish Open and will be eager to put right the wrongs of 2019.

Xander Schauffele (22/1 Betway) has all the duties that come with being the latest Open Championship winner to contend with and the American admits 2025 feels like his worst season so far. 

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Schauffele will defend the Open Championship title having lifted the Claret Jug in style at Royal Troon in 2024 and he warmed up nicely with a top 10 finish at the Renaissance Club.

Bryson DeChambeau also looks out of place in the market for me in a different test of golf although he is on the drift this week. 

LIV associate Jon Rahm (11/1 Coral) though is a links specialist and has kept his form going in the majors. Rahm is second in the LIV Golf standings and narrowly missed out on victory in Valderrama last week to Taylor Gooch.

Middle of the market

We’ve already had an in-depth look at some of the bigger priced value picks for this week. But moving a little further down the Open Championship odds and there's a trio of players who stand out for me here who arguably should all be shorter in the market.

First up is Tommy Fleetwood who had a nice warm up in Scotland but now faces a more suitable test at Royal Portrush. Fleetwood is yet to win on the PGA Tour but is having his best season there yet with five top 10 finishes in 'signature events'. 

Why hasn't he gotten over the line? Mostly variance. A poor decision cost him when missing out to Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship but Fleetwood has lost out in playoffs to 80 feet putt hole outs. 

Fleetwood’s time will come and he’s doing everything possible for that to happen at the Open Championship including a ‘reccy’ of the course a few weeks back. Only winner Shane Lowry finished ahead of Fleetwood here back in 2019. Stats wise there are not many better fits than the Liverpudlian who ranks fourth in ‘strokes gained total’ this year.

Shane Lowry is not under the radar this year by any means but there is an argument for him to be even shorter in the market. Lowry demonstrated his links pedigree winning by six strokes at Royal Portrush in 2019. 

We don't see this type of thing too often anymore and we saw at Portrush the advantage the Irishman has for this style of golf. 

Known as a short game specialist he also has one of the best ball flights in the game for the wind and this last 18 months or so Lowry has been excelling in the approach stats to ranking 3rd in ‘approach to the green’.

Robert MacIntyre is another name that springs to mind when we're talking about ball striking and flight for links golf. 

His record on links courses speaks for itself. He won the Scottish Open in 2024 and he arguably should have won the same event one year previous. 

MacIntyre is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour and is in great form having finished solo second at the US Open. The Scot had an unexpected poor performance at the Genesis Scottish Open last week and his price is drifting a little. We can take advantage of that.

FIRST’s top tip for the Open Championship 

Tommy Fleetwood’s fortunes will surely turn around soon, and he loves Royal Portrush. Back the Englishman to win the tournament at 20/1 (10 places) each way with Ladbrokes.

Extra tips 

Shane Lowry is having one of his best ball striking seasons and we know his affinity with Royal Portrush. Back the Irishman to go back-to-back there at 30/1 (seven places) each way with BetMGM.

Robert MacIntyre will be looking to put a poor Scottish Open performance behind him and go one better than his second place at the US Open. Back ‘Bob’ at 33/1 (seven places) each way with BetMGM.

The Open Championship: Also worth considering

All the hidden variables in links golf can lead to some big priced Open Championship winners and have done in the past. Brian Harman (125/1 BetMGM) won easily at big odds at Royal Liverpool in 2023 while Lowry himself was 66/1 and higher when winning the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in 2019. 

The more difficult the weather the better the chances of an outsider lifting the Claret Jug as Darren Clarke did at Royal St. Georges, opening at around the 200/1 mark. The first round leader market could be a fertile one in the lead up to the first tee off on Thursday. 

Matt Fitzpatrick is a man finding his feet again after 18 months or so in the wilderness. He continued the trend at the Scottish Open finishing t4 shooting a second round 63. Fitzpatrick has course form at Portrush where he finished in the top 20 in 2019. 

Fitzpatrick has recorded two other top 30 finishes in his last five Open outings. I wondered in the past whether he and caddy Billy Foster were a good fit despite winning a major together and the Englishman is trending in the right direction after the split in March. 

Ryan Fox is a man very much on my radar for the Open Championship and he recorded a sneaky top 16 finish at Royal Portrush in 2019. The Kiwi is a far better player now and has strong links and links style golf pedigree, growing up in New Zealand.

He won the Alfred Dunhill links Championship in 2022 and showed again last week at Renaissance Club that he can play this type of golf and play it well. The big hitter has a nice short game and good imagination which he showed in both his two PGA Tour wins this year at Myrtle Beach and at the Canadian Open.

Patrick Reed comes in undervalued in the Open Championship market. Overall, he’s third in the world in strokes gained this year.

Reed secured a top 10 at Royal Portrush in 2019. Reed won LIV Golf Dallas a few weeks back and recorded another top 10 at Valderrama last week. The American is fourth in the LIV Golf standings and has a good course fit for the Dunluce Links.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Open Championship

Matt Fitzpatrick is bubbling right now and could challenge for his second major title at Royal Portrush. Back Fitzpatrick to win the tournament at 45/1 (seven places) each way with Spreadex.

Patrick Reed looks like he could be one of the strongest American prospects in the Open Championship field. He’s available at 80/1 (seven places) each way with Spreadex.

Ryan Fox could prove to be a live outsider to win the Open Championship. Back the Kiwi at 80/1 (seven places) with BetMGM.

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Odds correct at the time of writing.