Nottingham Forest betting statistics - 2024/25

Nottingham Forest’s end to the season didn’t quite pan out how supporters had hoped. But a return to European competition for the first time in 30 years - after a campaign that saw them survive relegation by just six points, albeit via a four-point deduction - isn’t to be scoffed at.

However, a run of two wins from the final eight games of the season saw them pipped to a Champions League spot on the last day of the campaign, as they crashed to a 1-0 home defeat to Chelsea. Even so, it was a season to remember for Forest under Nuno Espirito Santo, who will take Forest to the UEFA Conference League next season.

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Goals scored, goals conceded and shots

While much was made of the goalscoring exploits of Chris Wood, and for good reason – the New Zealand international finished the Premier League campaign joint-fourth for goals (20) – Nuno’s side struggled when the 33-year-old was absent or firing blanks. With just seven goals to his name, Morgan Gibbs-White was Forest’s second top scorer in England’s top tier.

Unsurprisingly, then, Forest scored the joint-fewest goals (58) of those to finish inside the top 10 in the Premier League last season. Even Tottenham, who finished 17th, scored more goals, with 64. That shouldn’t come as a shock, however, as Forest placed 14th for shots per game (12.2) with their defence ultimately a key reason behind their seventh-placed finish.

At 46 goals conceded, it was the joint-sixth fewest, with Forest’s backline proving key in their successful campaign. What’s all the more impressive was that they conceded so few goals despite finishing the season sixth for shots conceded per game (14), that return higher than the likes of Everton (12.6) and Wolves (12.4), two teams that finished in the bottom half of the table.

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Saves, clearances, set pieces and possession

This did mean that goalkeeper Matz Sels was put through the paces between the Forest sticks. The Belgian, who was one of a handful of ever-presents in the Premier League last season, ranked joint third for total saves (119), while no goalkeeper kept more clean sheets than Sels (13) in the division.

In addition, there was so often increased pressure on the Forest backline, which meant they had to be on top of their game defensively in order to minimise the pressure on their goal. The proactive approach meant it was no surprise ranked top for clearances per game (31.1) in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign.

Evidently, the team as a whole were up to the task at hand, with centre-back Murillo leading the way for clearances (242), while the addition of Nikola Milenkovic also proved key in this defensive resolve, the towering Serb placing sixth (208) for this metric.

Incidentally, Milenkovic became vital for Nuno’s side at both ends of the pitch. Arguably the signing of the season, the former Fiorentina man helped Forest tighten up at the back while adding an additional threat from set-pieces. Forest did, after all, score more goals from set-piece situations (17) than any other team in the Premier League last season, of which Milenkovic scored five; only Yoane Wissa (6) scored more in the division.

The number of set-piece goals by Forest, though, shouldn’t come as a surprise. They needed to capitalise on any chances presented to them owing to their lowly possession return. Indeed, only Ipswich (40%) and Everton (40.5%) returned a lower possession average than Forest (40.7%), so chances were few and far between, at least compared to their European rivals.

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Possession won, counter attacks and xG

For a team that did sit as deep as Forest often did, remaining compact to frustrate opponents with a low-block, they did work hard off the ball in their own half of the pitch to protect Sels and his goal. As such, it’s not a surprise that they ranked third for possession won in the defensive third (833) in England’s top tier last term.

In addition, this meant Forest needed to do their best to hit opponents on the counter-attack, utilising the speed of wingers Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi. Just 24% of Forest’s attacks came through the middle of the pitch, the lowest proportion of attacks through this section, as Nuno tasked the wide pair with remaining high and wide to hit opponents on the counter attack.

Forest ranked fifth for both shots following a counter attack (41) and goals scored following a counter attack (7) in the Premier League last season. With the willingness to get upfield quickly, it’s not a shock that Elanga to Wood was the joint-third best assist-to-goalscorer combination in the division, yielding five goals.

The problem for Forest, though, is whether the previous season is sustainable. They enjoyed a campaign to remember, yet the concern is this will be a flash in the pan. Only Wolves (+5.01) returned a better xG overperformance than Forest (+4.85) in 2024/25, and the end-of-season form, to some, was a return to the norm for Nuno’s side.

This summer is key for Forest, especially with teams interested in key men Ola Aina, Gibbs-White and Elanga. Wood is also the wrong side of 30, and when the experienced hitman isn’t firing, then Forest struggle. They need to build upon their European finish, though are at least making moves in the market as evidenced by the impending signings of Igor Jesus and Jair Cunha. With those around them expected to strengthen, this is a pivotal moment in the club’s history.

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