UEFA Nations League odds: Germany favourites to win home tournament

Germany, Portugal, Spain and France will vie for a spot in this weekend’s UEFA Nations League Final, as all four partake in semi-finals on 4 June and 5 June. 

Bar Germany, each of the remaining participants have achieved glory in UEFA’s newest international tournament. Portugal came out on top in 2019, while France (2021) and Spain (2023) attained the 7.5-kilogram trophy over the last four years. 

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With over £8m in prize money up for grabs and certain players battling for the Balon d’Or, there is plenty to play for here. Let’s run through the current favourites at the UK’s best bookmakers. 

Who will reach the final?

Semi-finals are almost always tight-knit affairs – with sides acutely aware that one misstep could harbour elimination. Which team can most effectively navigate such unwavering pressure generally fairs best. 

At bet365, it is Germany (4/9) who lead the way when it comes to the ‘to reach the final’ market. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have lost just once since November 2023; spanning 17 games and 11 wins. Although the Germans fell short in the 2019, 2021 and 2023 renditions of this competition, they will have the backing of Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena in the semi-final on Wednesday night. 

Germany’s opponents, Portugal (13/8), stand as bet365’s underdogs to reach Sunday’s final. 

Spain (3/4) and France (1/1) repeat their EURO 2024 semi-final meeting on Thursday, 5 June. The Spaniards prevailed last July – but Didier Deschamps’ high-energy outfit will seek revenge this time around. 

Favourites to win the UEFA Nations League

At 4/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Paddy Power, a Portuguese win on Sunday would represent a shock to most major UK bookies. This is even more pronounced at BetMGM and Betfred – where 2016’s European champions are listed at 5/1.

France sit next in line as third favourites to snag a second UEFA Nations League crown; bet365, William Hill and BetMGM each hold the Kylian Mbappe-led side at 3/1. One key factor must be considered before any bet on the French – Ousmane Dembele is the market leader to win this year’s Ballon d’Or and tournament victory could cement his spot as the world’s best player. 

As for Spain, odds vary between 9/4 (Ladbrokes, Betway and BetVictor) and 2/1 (Betfred and William Hill). As is the case with France, ‘La Roja’ have a Ballon d’Or contender within their ranks – with 17-year-old Lamine Yamal in the running to become the youngest-ever winner of the individual award. 

But, once again, the Germans enter June’s mini-tournament as market leaders. The common consensus among many bookmakers is that odds of 7/4 to 15/8 are most suitable, as bet365, William Hill, Boylesports and Coral all regard the tournament’s hosts as strong favourites. 

And, when weighing up head-to-head results, these odds add up. Germany have not lost to Portugal in over 15 years, beat France during their most recent outing and only lost to Spain after extra time at the quarter-final stage of EURO 2024.