ATP Queen's Club betting preview: Americans poised to yank Alcaraz off his perch

The grasscourt swing is up and running after a series of tournaments throughout the last week, including the first women’s singles competition at Queen's Club since 1973. Which was won by the 37-year-old German qualifier Tatjana Maria, and self dubbed the ‘queen of queen’s’. 

Now it is the men’s turn to head to West Kensington for the oldest and most prestigious warm-up event for Wimbledon, which begins at the end of June.

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World number one Jannik Sinner has elected to play in Halle, but Queen’s Club patrons will get to see five-time major winner Carlos Alcaraz for the third year in a row.

The favourites

Alcaraz has lost just once since late March, winning back-to-back titles - the latest of which featured an epic showdown against Sinner at Roland Garros, widely hailed as one of the greatest matches in Grand Slam history.

Betting on grand slams compared to non-grand slams, may be a little different. But the Spaniard is a defending back-to-back Wimbledon champion and also won at Queen’s in 2023. So expectations will be high as he launches his grasscourt campaign in the coming days.

Bookmakers have every right to price him at odds-on for the title, but the switch from clay to grass is not straightforward.

There are some capable players in this draw who are more attuned to the surface after competing in Stuttgart or Hertogenbosch last week, so that is not a bet for me.

I’ll be swerving 4/1 shot Jack Draper for the same reason. Yes, it’s his home country and yes, he won a grasscourt tournament last year. But there are some potential banana skins in his section, and those odds are ultimately far too short.

The beauty of having two short-priced players at the top of the market is that they inflate the odds of those in the next tier on the board. Two in particular stand out after their recent exploits in Germany.

FIRST’s top tip for ATP Queen's

The start of the grasscourt season came at just the right time for Taylor Fritz. After a tough start to 2025, plagued by injuries and patchy form, the American found his groove in Stuttgart, prevailing at the BOSS Open without dropping a set.

It is a quick turnaround to Queen’s, but fatigue should not be too big a concern for the world number four, as he only played four matches in May. 

Having previously won three Eastbourne Opens, the grass specialist can notch another title in England at an attractive price.

Pick: Taylor Fritz to win ATP Queen’s - 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Extra tips

Ben Shelton lost a tight semi-final with Alexander Zverev in Stuttgart, in what was still a promising first grasscourt event of the year for the 22-year-old. He might be an underdog in the betting, but he’s a live threat at that. 

He didn’t drop his serve all week and won every point behind his first serve in the quarter-final victory over Jiri Lehecka.

Shelton may face Alcaraz in the quarter-finals, but like Jordan Thompson, last year's Queen’s semi-finalist, Shelton’s capable of upsetting the top seed in the second round and clearing the path somewhat.

Pick: Ben Shelton (each-way) to win ATP Queen’s - 20/1 (Betway)

Brandon Nakashima also had his Stuttgart hopes ended by Zverev, though there was enough to like about his BOSS Open performances to suggest he’s worth a small each-way interest.

His serve always gives him a chance on grass, and he showed some impressive baseline consistency in Germany.

Pick: Brandon Nakashima (each-way) to win ATP Queen’s - 60/1 (BetMGM)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.