ATP Queen's quarter finals betting tips: Alcaraz vs Rinderknech, Rune vs Bautista Agut & an outright winner shout!

Top two seeds Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper have each made their way through to the last eight at Queen’s Club, but neither has had an easy ride.

Jaume Munar was as big as 20/1 with some firms to beat Alcaraz, but had a chance to do just that, serving at 4-3 up in the final set before the world number one fought back to edge out a close battle.

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Draper had to come from behind in his round two encounter, too. The Brit dropped the first set to Alexei Popyrin before eventually prevailing in a final-set tie-break.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech (Friday 3pm)

Alcaraz hasn’t had it all his own way this week. His opening contest against Adam Walton was closer than expected, while Munar gave him a genuine scare on Thursday.

The Spaniard admitted to struggling both mentally and physically during the third set against his compatriot. 

Meanwhile, Arthur Rinderknech has delivered impressive performances in his victories over Ben Shelton and Reilly Opelka, and he’ll be encouraged by the signs of vulnerability his quarter-final opponent has shown in recent days. 

There could be some value to find in the in-play market if Rinderknech finds his form early in the match.

FIRST’s top tip for Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech

It’s rare to see a total games line as low as 20.5 in a men’s singles match on grass, and while there’s a clear gap in class between the players, this is an opportunity I can’t ignore.

Each of Alcaraz’s contests at Queen’s this year has featured at least 23 games. The same was true when he faced Rinderknech at the tournament two years ago, a match he won in three sets.

Pick: Over 20.5 games - 4/5 (Betway)

Holger Rune vs Roberto Bautista Agut (Friday 4:30pm)

A change in grip on serve sparked a superb turnaround from Holger Rune after a poor first set display against Mackenzie McDonald on Wednesday evening.

Roberto Bautista Agut also recovered from a set down to upset Jakub Mensik, a player widely touted for success on grass.

The savvy campaigner is well-versed on this surface and will not make life easy for Rune in the last quarter-final of the day.

FIRST’s top tip for Holger Rune vs Roberto Bautista Agut

Rune struck 24 winners to just six unforced errors across sets two and three against McDonald. 

While it’s unrealistic to expect that level over an entire match against the experienced Bautista Agut, the composure and tactical adjustments he made mid-match on Wednesday were noteworthy. 

The odds on Rune to progress in three sets are appealing in what promises to be a compelling clash of styles.

Pick: Holger Rune to win 2-1 - 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Outright winner

Alcaraz is generally priced at 4/6 to win the title. That is outrageously short considering he may need to beat Rune and Draper, let alone Rinderknech, who hasn’t faced a break point in the main draw.

Readers of my pre-tournament preview still have an open ticket on Brandon Nakashima at 60/1. He takes on Jack Draper in the last eight - a man who, like Alcaraz, looks beatable this week.

FIRST’s top tip for ATP Queen's

I opposed Rune in his second-round match due to concerns about his physical condition. While one win doesn’t fully dispel those doubts, it’s enough to justify a fresh perspective, especially given his price to earn his maiden grasscourt title.

The Dane’s game offers significant upside, and he stands out as the most logical addition to the outright portfolio, giving us one player from each half heading into the quarter-finals.

If you missed Nakashima at 60/1, a small each-way interest on him now at 33/1 is by no means bad business.

Pick: Holger Rune to win ATP Queen’s - 10/1 (Spreadex)

Odds correct at the time of writing.

Previous matches

Dan Evans vs Brandon Nakashima - Pick: Over 23.5 games - 1/1 (BetMGM)

Holger Rune vs Mackenzie MacDonald - Pick: Mackenzie McDonald to win - 2/1 (BetMGM)

Jiri Lehecka vs Gabriel Diallo - Pick: Over 23.5 games - 3/4 (Luckster)

Daniel Evans vs Brandon Nakashima (Wednesday)

Three Brits are through to the second round, and it is perhaps a surprise that Dan Evans is one of them. 

He has now played six matches on grass this summer, and he caught Tiafoe cold on Monday as the American played for the first time on the surface this year after making the switch from clay.

Evans never allowed Tiafoe to get into his rhythm, showing excellent movement and variety with his strokes as he broke the seventh seed’s serve six times.

Brandon Nakashima is well adjusted to grass after playing in the BOSS Open. He has served well in recent outings and is rightly the favourite to progress.

FIRST’s top tip for Daniel Evans vs Brandon Nakashima

It is a rematch of the pair’s round one encounter at Queen’s last year, when Evans was forced to retire at one set all. 

It was an intriguing battle until then, with the Englishman taking the opener and Nakashima hitting back in the second set.

A similarly close affair could be on the cards on Wednesday in this fascinating clash of styles, with changing momentum in the match expected, which is perfect for tracking and strategising your in-play betting.

Pick: Over 23.5 games - 1/1 (BetMGM)

Holger Rune vs Mackenzie McDonald (Wednesday)

World number nine Holger Rune was impressive in his round one triumph over Christopher O’Connell, but there always seems to be a physical issue around the corner for the Dane.

After his French Open defeat to Lorenzo Musetti earlier this month, he was downbeat about his fitness, admitting that he could not train during the clay season.

Mackenzie McDonald will pose a proper test on grass following his straight sets win over Gael Monfils.

FIRST’s top tip for Holger Rune vs Mackenzie McDonald

Rune is the more talented player by some distance but McDonald’s price is attractive given the ongoing uncertainty around Rune’s physical struggles.

Incidentally, he retired while a set down in the pair’s latest head-to-head in Cincinnati.

Pick: Mackenzie McDonald to win - 2/1 (BetMGM)

Jiri Lehecka vs Gabriel Diallo (Thursday) 

Both Jiri Lehecka and Gabriel Diallo have held their serve at a rate of 95 per cent or greater on grass this summer.

Diallo played a tie-break in four of his five matches en route to victory in Hertogenbosch last week. Expect at least one on Thursday against a fellow big server.

FIRST’s top tip for Jiri Lehecka vs Gabriel Diallo

These two have never met in a singles match before and should be evenly matched on grass. Three sets is a possibility, but a couple of long ones could also see this bet land. 

Diallo had two 7-5, 7-6 successes in the Netherlands, standing firm on serve and finding the odd break in key moments.

Pick: Over 23.5 games - 3/4 (Luckster)

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Odds correct at the time of writing.