Atalanta v Chelsea tips and predictions: Palladino out to reaffirm his call in play-off race

Atalanta state of play

Atalanta have put together a tidy European campaign and arrive on the back of two straight wins, with a clean sheet kept in the last three matches. The Italian side holds 10th place on 10 points, well within reach of an automatic Round of 16 berth. Top Champions League betting sites price them at 9/4 to land inside the first eight. As things stand, goal difference is doing the sorting between Atalanta and their Tuesday opponents, Chelsea, along with Sporting Lisbon, Borussia Dortmund, and Man City. The latter will be heading to the Bernabeu to face Real Madrid in what shapes up as one of the most anticipated ties of Matchday 6.

Back home, Atalanta come off a pair of outings they will hope mark a real turning point. Berat Djimsiti, Marten de Roon, Mario Pašalić and youngster Honest Ahanor scored one goal apiece to book a place in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals against 36-time Serie A winners Juventus. Three days earlier, they saw off Fiorentina 2-0, a scoreline that could have grown if ex-Man Utd keeper David De Gea had not dealt with the other seven efforts on target.

Wednesday’s fixture marked Raffaele Palladino’s fourth match in charge after Ivan Jurić got shown the door. Three of those have ended in victories, including a 3-0 away job at Eintracht Frankfurt. What caught the eye of the hierarchy was his man-to-man press and the way he shifts shape without losing structure. Palladino favours an inverted full-back to help possession and works heavily through half-spaces. Most of his setups use two attacking midfielders stationed behind a lone striker, which feeds his preference for in-behind movement.

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Chelsea state of play

Chelsea are coming off a disappointing trip to the North after dropping valuable points in a 3-1 defeat to Leeds. That result leaves them nine points adrift of Arsenal in the Premier League title race, with the Gunners now heading into their own Champions League Matchday 6 date against Club Brugge. Speaking to Sky Sports, former Man Utd stalwart Gary Neville poured cold water on any talk of a title charge. In his words, “They will be in the top four or five, no problem, but when you talk about winning the league, they are short in goal, short at centre back and short up top.”

Enzo Maresca cut a frustrated figure as well and, in a more diplomatic tone, conceded that Chelsea were second best “in all aspects.” The Italian had little choice but to give Wesley Fofana and Reece James a breather after a hectic stretch against Barcelona and Arsenal. I’d now expect both to come back into the frame for Atalanta, assuming no injury surprises surface at the weekend when they face Bournemouth. The best Premier League betting sites have them marked at 6/5 for three points.

Another missing face at Leeds was midfielder Moises Caicedo after a straight red in the previous outing, a decision that also leaves him out for the two upcoming Premier League matches. The Ecuadorian has featured in 50 of Maresca’s 51 league fixtures so far and, at various points, reports suggested he told close friends and family he felt “exhausted” by the workload at Chelsea. With a full breather now behind him, I’d fancy him as one of the first names on the teamsheet in Bergamo.

Key talking point: Big night ahead as both chase a cleaner path into the knockouts

Both Atalanta and Chelsea carry 10 points apiece and will view this one as a chance to plant a firm foothold in qualifying, perhaps even straight into the Round of 16. For the side that comes up short, the table could tighten fast, leaving them only a few points clear of the bottom play-off positions. 

For the Italian side, there’s also the angle of Raffaele Palladino wanting to prove those three wins in his first four were no flash in the pan. The real question is how quickly the players take to the ideas he is bringing in and whether that approach holds up on a stage this big against the reigning world champions.

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FIRST.com’s top tip - Atalanta v Chelsea

Pick: Both Teams to Score (Yes) – 3/5 – (Ladbrokes)

Ever since Palladino came through the door, Atalanta have churned out 21 shots or more in three of his first four outings. It is a small sample, granted, yet something clearly clicks given they only hit that mark twice across the entire campaign before his arrival. I’d fancy at least one of those efforts breaching Sánchez’s guard on Tuesday. 

Chelsea will not hold back either. They have found the net in every one of their 21 fixtures across all competitions apart from the nil nil opener against Crystal Palace. Atalanta have looked rock solid with three straight clean sheets, yet whether that holds against the Blues is something I would lean against this time round.

Pick: Correct Score (2-2) - 11/1 - (Unibet) 

This one lives on the braver side of the ledger yet might warrant a small stake or even a free bet from one of the top UK bookies. I’m sticking with the view that goals will surface and that both sides will match each other across key areas of the pitch. A 1-1 at 6/1 has its appeal, though the contest feels like it carries more. Final prediction — Atalanta 2 Chelsea 2.

Team news

Raffaele Palladino does not have too much to contend with in the infirmary. Dutch winger Bakker is working his way back and has already resumed individual sessions on the pitch. The more concerning case is Sulemana. The 23-year-old has been sidelined with a muscle issue in his right adductor and has now been placed on a strictly controlled treatment plan. Reports across the Italian press suggest he could miss the remainder of 2025.

A similar tale runs through Chelsea. The Blues have Levi Colwill ruled out for most of the campaign after an ACL setback. Enzo Maresca confirmed Dario Essugo is back on the grass and looks nearer to an appearance than Belgian teammate Romeo Lavia. The latter remains sidelined with no clear return date after picking up a string of smaller issues.

Atalanta vs Chelsea expected line-ups

Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, Ederson, De Roon, Zalewski; Lookman, De Ketelaere; Scamacca (3-4-2-1)  

Chelsea: Sanchez; Cucurella, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Gusto; Caicedo, James; Estevao, Joao Pedro, Garnacho; Delap (4-2-3-1)

Form guide 

Atalanta: WWWLLWLDDD

Chelsea: LDWWWDWWLW

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Odds correct at the time of writing.