Man City vs Borussia Dortmund tips and predictions: Haaland reunion as Dortmund look to break Etihad curse

Man City state of play

Man City saw their nine-game unbeaten streak in all competitions end at Aston Villa, which knocked them down from second to fifth in the Premier League title race. They responded with a 3-1 win away to Swansea in the Carabao Cup.

Pep Guardiola made ten changes for that one. Cherki, Doku, and Marmoush added plenty of spark and earned good words from the boss afterwards, so there’s every chance one or two of them get a look in when they face Dortmund.

➡️ Top UK bookies price Man City at 9/1 for Europe’s crown and 11/8 to win the Premier League.

Look at the numbers, and it’s clear City still play their football through control, even with Guardiola asking for quicker transitions. Against Swansea, they put together 718 passes. That's miles above their league average of 487.44, which already puts them second in that table.

Possession stats tell the same story. With around 58% on average, the Sky Blues see more of the ball than most sides in the division. That climbs to about 62% at the Etihad, and in Europe it goes even higher (70%).

The difference now is in how they use the ball. Play moves far quicker toward Erling Haaland, who’s currently the Premier League’s top scorer with 11 goals in 9 games. He missed the Swansea fixture with what Guardiola called a minor knock, but all signs point to him being available for Dortmund. Before that, there’s Bournemouth at the weekend, a good measure of how the Cherries handle life near the higher end of the table.

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Borussia Dortmund state of play

Champions League betting sites have City 5/11, the draw 4/1, and the away side 11/2. That tells you how little faith there is in the German outfit getting anything. History, though, points to close affairs. This will be the tenth meeting between the two.

None of the ones before have been settled by more than a single goal, apart from a pre-season clash back in 2010. Betway price a City win by one goal at 3/1, while a one-goal edge for Dortmund is 7/1.

Borussia Dortmund come off a nerve-jangling DFB-Pokal tie against Eintracht Frankfurt. Brandt grabbed the equaliser before Gregor Kobel turned hero in the shootout. It felt like their first real show of grit after a patchy October (they’re 5th in the Bundesliga), and both the club and local press have called it a possible turning point.

Kovač also rotated with intent, keeping Serhou Guirassy on the bench to manage workload ahead of Augsburg and this trip to Manchester. He’s expected to lead the line again here. Away from the pitch, Adeyemi’s contract talks keep rumbling on, with his camp pushing for a release clause to be included in any new extension beyond his current deal, which runs to 2027.

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Key talking point: Haaland’s dominance forces Dortmund to rethink how they defend inside the box.

Haaland’s got 30 goals in 32 Champions League games for City. He’ll be up against familiar colours too, having hit 15 in 13 during his Dortmund spell. The Sky Blues lean heavily on him.

As a unit, they average around 35 touches inside the opposition box per European game, compared with roughly 31 in the league. Dortmund, in contrast, manage about 23 across all competitions. 

With numbers like that, the Germans’ main task has to be forcing City into tighter angles and cutting off the supply into Haaland to slow down the rhythm in front of goal.

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FIRST.com’s top tip - Man City vs Borussia Dortmund

Pick: Both Teams to Score – 11/20 – (10bet)

Borussia Dortmund have hit four in each of their three Champions League games so far against Juventus, Bilbao, and Copenhagen. There’s no doubt they know how to carve teams open. Guardiola’s lot press high and push the full-backs on, which leaves gaps when the ball turns over.

At the other end of the pitch, City carry just as much threat. Their number nine’s already got eight top-scorer awards across club and country. Add Doku, Foden, and Reijnders, and they seldom finish a match without scoring, even when the rhythm feels off.

💡 FACT: Both teams scored in six of their nine clashes. Dortmund have netted in all 8 Bundesliga games, while City managed goals across 7 league matches.

Pick: Dortmund to Win – 11/2 – (William Hill)

No one’s saying it’s likely. Dortmund have never won at the Etihad, and City are a top side in their own right. 

Even so, we’ve seen a few slips from them this season. Dortmund have been scoring freely in Europe, lost only once in the league, and look settled. With players like Adeyemi and Guirassy pushing for form and futures, 11/2 feels a bit longer than it should.

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Team news

The main talking point around City right now is Erling Haaland, who missed the Swansea trip while nursing a minor knock. Guardiola says he should be fine for Bournemouth and then Dortmund. Uzbek defender Abdukodir Khusanov got 63 minutes in midweek after seven games out. As for Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, the boss mentioned in an interview that he’s back training at the CFA and should return soon.

Dortmund also appear to have most of their squad available. The only ones still missing are Emre Can and Julien Duranville. They are both yet to play this season and look set for late November returns. Ramy Bensebaini is another name expected to remain sidelined for the Champions League tie.

Man City vs Borussia Dortmund expected line-ups

Man City: Donnarumma; Gvardiol, Stones, Dias, Nunes; Reijnders; Savinho, Foden, Silva, Doku; Haaland (4-1-4-1)

Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Sule, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Bellingham, Svensson; Adeyemi, Beier; Guirassy (3-4-2-1)

Form guide 

Man City: WLWWWDWWDW

Borussia Dortmund: D(W)WWLDWWWDW

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Odds and data correct at the time of writing.