Wolves betting statistics - 2024/25

Wolves’ 2024/25 was essentially a tale of two halves. Gary O’Neil, who worked wonders in his first full season at the Molineux helm, was relieved of his duties in December following a 2-1 loss to Ipswich. Defeat left the club in 19th, four points off safety.

In his place came Vitor Pereira with the sole aim of keeping Wolves in the Premier League.

While a risk, Pereira having struggled to hold down a role since his 2021 appointment at Fenerbahce, managing across Turkiye, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, the 57-year-old proved a fine addition to the Molineux touchline.

Indeed, Pereira was one of the candidates for the Manager of the Season award, Arne Slot ultimately winning the accolade owing to Liverpool’s title triumph in his debut season at Anfield.

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Shots, goals, conversion rate and winning streak

Pereira does deserve immense credit for his role in Wolves’ safety but they still endured a testing campaign and were it not for the individual brilliance of Matheus Cunha, they would have finished far closer to the relegation zone.

Indeed, their average of 11.3 shots per game was actually the fifth lowest in the division, while 4.2 shots on target per game was the sixth worst.

However, while Wolves were reluctant to test the opposition goalkeeper, they actually managed a fairly respectable goal haul. While 54 goals paled in comparison to the likes of Liverpool (86) and Manchester City (72), the fact is that only Tottenham (64) scored more than the Midlands side of those to finish in the bottom half last season.

With a relatively solid goal haul, all things considered, Wolves’ prolificacy enabled them to put teams to the sword where possible. The low number of shots combined with the respectable goal return meant Wolves actually managed the fifth best conversion rate (12.3%) in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign.

The consistency to Wolves’ finishing meant they were so often able to put crunch points on the board, which proved vital in the business end of the campaign. A six-game winning run – no team went on a longer winning streak in the Premier League last season – in the final weeks of the season allowed the team to open up a vital gap between themselves and the relegation zone, meaning supporters could breathe a little easier as the campaign came to a head.

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Expected goals, shots conceded and goals conceded

Of course, it helped that Wolves were able to score the chances they perhaps shouldn’t have done. They managed a modest Expected Goals return of 47.99, and while they may have been the fifth lowest, combined with their total goals it meant that Wolves outperformed their xG by 5.01, the biggest overperformance in the division.

Key to that overperformance was Matheus Cunha, who was so often able to conjure a moment of magic from nothing. The Brazilian, who has since departed for Manchester United, scored more goals (15) than any other Wolves player in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, and did so from an xG return of just 8.7. With that, an xG overperformance of 6.3 was actually the second biggest in the league behind only new United teammate Bryan Mbeumo (6.79).

In truth, Wolves needed Cunha to routinely pull a rabbit from the hat, considering their less-than-watertight defence. Granted, they shipped an average of just 12.4 shots per game, which is the ninth lowest, yet they routinely struggled to keep opponents out, despite implementing a three-man backline and utilising Andre and Joao Gomes in the middle of the park to shield the defence.

As a result, Wolves actually conceded the fourth most goals (69) in England’s top tier last term, and their defensive issues could have proved costly were in not for their prolificacy and the exploits of new United man Cunha. How they replace the Brazilian could determine their fortunes next season.

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Tackles, fouls and set-piece goals conceded

What does stand out, though, is that Wolves did all they could to prevent opponents from chancing their luck. In fact, only United (21.5) made more tackles per game than Pereira’s side (21.1) with Gomes again a key player off the ball, the Brazilian ranking third for tackles (116) of all players.

Yet no matter how much they looked to prevent teams from scoring against them, working tirelessly off the ball to minimise the chances opponents had on their goal, a major issue stemmed from their inability to implement a measure of control when they did go in search of possession having ranked second for fouls per game (12.6) in the division.

This in turn contributed to Wolves’ high goals against return in the Premier League last season. Indeed, no team conceded more goals from set-piece situations than Wolves (20), while only Brighton (9) shipped more penalties than Pereira’s team (7). This was a contributing factor towards their sub-par season and poor defensive record. Iron out the number of fouls committed and tighten up from set-pieces, and Wolves will have a safer season this time around.

How Wolves approach the final weeks of the transfer window could ultimately prove key in their bid to survive. Jorgen Strand Larsen’s loan move has been made permanent, and the striker will look to build upon a solid 14-goal haul in his debut campaign. Fer Lopez, Jhon Arias and David Moller Wolfe have also signed, the latter as a direct replacement for Rayan Ait-Nouri after his switch to Manchester City. 

There remains, though, a Cunha-sized hole on the frontline; and with Pablo Sarabia also gone, three of their top five scorers have left the club this summer. Furthermore, having struggled from set-pieces, Wolves must remain composed when out of possession to ensure that they don’t give away cheap chances for opponents to exploit. 39.1% of the total goals they did concede last season did come from a deadball situation, be that a free-kick, corner or penalty.

Managerial upheaval isn’t the way forward either, and ensuring Pereira remains at the Molineux helm in the long run will ensure that Wolves don’t face another potential relegation scrap. Consolidating a Premier League is the aim but with Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland all bolstering their squad, Wolves won’t get the same luxury that’ll come with inefficient promoted sides.

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